Six stories - 16 January 2025

Will Mexico's electrical grid collapse? Can Peru's Navy stop China from using the Chancay port militarily? And who is Ecuador's president? The last question seems easy, but it's not.

Every Thursday, I send six short commentaries about politics and security around Latin America. Please feel free to respond to this email with feedback, comments, and questions.

The Biden administration dropped Cuba from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list. As I wrote in 2013, removing Cuba from the list is a smart policy. I’m glad they did it and they should have done it sooner. In response and thanks to the mediation of the Catholic Church, the Cuban government is in the process of releasing political prisoners. Yesterday, during his confirmation hearing, Marco Rubio suggested the Trump administration will roll back the new Biden policy.

Also yesterday, a news story broke that will impact this narrative. Colombian High Peace Commissioner Otty Patiño published a letter accusing the ELN of plotting to assassinate Álvaro Jiménez, an advisor who is leading the country’s negotiations with the Clan del Golfo. The ELN has gone through several leadership splits in recent years and the group can barely be called Colombian anymore given that about half its organization is outside the country and the majority of its new recruits over the past five years are Venezuelan citizens. But one constant is that the group’s oldest leaders are friends with Cuba, sometimes take refuge in Cuba, and Cuba has provided a safe spot for negotiations. The US has used this fact as part of the scant and underwhelming evidence to keep Cuba on the State Sponsors of Terrorism list.

So just as the Biden administration drops the designation, the ELN leadership manages to stumble into a controversy that will give the incoming Trump administration justification to reverse that policy and potentially bump the issue up the priority list. Then, that move will likely lead to Petro blaming the US instead of the ELN for the setback in Total Peace, which will then harm US-Colombia relations. It’s a cascade of bad policies, all coming from an ELN organization that has spent decades failing to accomplish its objectives but still manages to make the hemisphere a worse place despite its failures.

Who is the president of Ecuador right now? We all acknowledge that Daniel Noboa is the de facto president, but who is the de jure president right this moment? And over this coming weekend? And during the next presidential debate? The question is harder than you think.