Six stories - 10 April 2025

One analysis point is even optimistic. That's probably the one I'll get wrong.

Happy Thursday. I focus on US-LatAm relations on Mondays and then use the Thursday newsletter to highlight stories that aren’t directly about the US.

In today’s newsletter:

1. Ecuador election

2. Costa Rica scandal

3. Venezuela-Guyana

4. Colombia election

5. Mexico Energy

6. Regional economics

Feel free to respond to this email with feedback, comments, and questions.

The second round of Ecuador’s election is this weekend. It’s near a coin-flip, with Gonzalez having a very slight edge in the polls. While I think Gonzalez is slightly more likely than Noboa to win, neither result would be a surprise. The polls are close, as was the first round, and a small number of late voters deciding could be what determines the outcome.

In the past weeks, a tail risk that has emerged is the possibility that Gonzalez wins and Noboa refuses to recognize her victory. Noboa and his allies claim that Gonzalez and the RC paid off gangs to manipulate the election along the coast during the first round. Given Noboa’s personality, it isn’t unthinkable that he could make similar claims after a close second-round loss to try to contest the validity of the election.

Noboa has been trying to build support within the Trump administration. He is also the candidate favored by markets. It’s not clear how much international pushback Noboa would receive if he attempted to hold on to power after a narrow loss that he contested with claims of fraud.

From the other side, it’s also possible that Gonzalez or Rafael Correa claim fraud if Noboa wins by a narrow margin. While this could impact Noboa’s ability to form a governing coalition during the coming term, it wouldn’t put the transition to his next term in question.

I want to stress that a disputed election isn’t the most likely scenario. But it’s one I’m concerned about. Demonstrating that the election is free and fair (I think it will be, but obviously, that can change depending on evidence from those on the ground) will play an important role for international election monitors.

In Costa Rica, Attorney General Carlo Díaz accused President Rodrigo Chaves of corruption and said his presidential immunity should be removed. Chaves is accused of directing a government media contract funded by CABEI to a business owned by Christian Bulgarelli and further directed Bulgarelli to direct a kickback payment to Federico Cruz, a friend of the president. Bulgarelli is cooperating with prosecutors.

Separately, InSight Crime has a report on Costa Rica’s indictments of the Fenix money laundering ring from late February. Local criminal groups used businesses to offer services to Mexican cartels moving money through the country.