Rubio's nomination as secretary of state brings attention to Latin America. But will he be effective?
Rubio's influence and legacy in his new position will be tied to Venezuela policy and negotiations on immigration and trade.
Monday newsletters are focused on US policy in Latin America. Today’s newsletter focuses on President-elect Trump’s nomination of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and what it may mean for regional policy.
Attention matters
Marco Rubio as Secretary of State will mean greater attention on Latin America than usually seen in US foreign policy. I agree with the conventional wisdom on that. I appreciate that his time in the Senate shows someone capable of balancing the distracting and less important issues of the world like China and the Middle East while keeping a laser-like focus on the larger importance of Latin America.
Rubio will play a major role in areas where Trump doesn’t have a defined policy and doesn’t care about the outcome. In particular, he will exercise enormous leverage on Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Ecuador, and Colombia, where Rubio has strong opinions about issues while Trump and most other cabinet members care far less. So while there are big expectations and burning questions for what Rubio means for Venezuela, Cuba, Mexico and Brazil, the bigger impact of Rubio’s attention will go to all the other countries where he has a strong position and the other cabinet members and media are paying far less attention.
Rubio will be an advocate for a more expansionist US policy in the region regarding security policy including the use of the military, law enforcement and intelligence. The next secretary of state wants the US to be countering China, Russia and Iran in the Western Hemisphere. Like Bolton, he is a defender of the Monroe Doctrine. He is also a security hawk eager to take on threats like cartels and criminal groups with more direct action. While Rubio’s vision of US power may clash with some Trump allies in Ukraine and other areas of the world, those people aren’t paying attention to Latin America.
This leaves a big question of Mexico. If Rubio makes it into 2026, he will become the free trade advocate within a pro-tariff administration busy renegotiating USMCA. While Rubio has serious qualms about AMLO and now Sheinbaum tearing down institutional checks on their power (ignore any irony on that concern), he is also pro-business and pro-trade. Rubio believes that Latin America generally and Mexico in particular can play an important role in countering China’s global inluence.
Nobody should assume attention = effectiveness
Sure, Rubio will pay attention to Latin America and his vision for the region will heavily influence US policy. But as all administrations learn, there is an enormous leap between wanting to do something and effectively doing it. It does not help to pay more attention if that only leads to implementing incorrect or counterproductive policies.
One of the mistaken takes I’ve seen over the past week is that Rubio’s presence increases the likelihood that Maduro is removed from power. The Venezuelan regime previously survived four years under Trump and Bolton, an administration that included a “maximum pressure” push to remove Maduro from power. Maduro is not a simple push away from falling. Agree or disagree with the Biden administration’s policies on Venezuela, given the failure of Trump’s first term, there is no reason to believe a harder line with more sanctions would have produced different or better results over the past four years.
Rubio’s attention only works to dislodge Maduro if he finds some nuance within the hardline policies and is willing to build carrots as well as punishments into the process to incentivize the Maduro regime to crack or leave. If the only thing more attention on Venezuela brings is larger and better-enforced sanctions, well, that’s been tried before. It’s not fun for Maduro’s inner circle and a tragedy for the Venezuelan people, but it’s survivable by the regime.
How long does Rubio stay in this position?
The top comment I heard last week while discussing Marco Rubio’s nomination was some variation on, “how long does he last?” Notably, that question took greater importance and concern than comments about his being the first Latino Secretary of State, how much he cares about Latin America, and how it will impact policies across the region.