Regional rightwing protest wave
As the left gains political power, a new populist right finds its footing as the noisy opposition.
In countries where left leaning leaders have taken power in Latin America, rightwing opposition movements are gaining strength and organizing protests.
Just this past week:
There is a truckers protest in Chile shutting down highways
There are anti-government protests in Peru calling for the removal of President Castillo
Bolivian opposition movements continue to drive protests in the eastern parts of the country
There are continued pro-Bolsonaro protests in Brazil attempting to disrupt the transition to Lula
In the Economist last week, Michael Reid wrote that the region's political right would gain power in 2023. I think it's too early to say that an opposition victory in Argentina would represent a reversal in the current political pendulum. However, Reid is correct that leftwing governments in an anti-incumbent environment facing economic challenges are going to give openings for rightwing political movements and outsiders to gain strength.
Last week in Mexico, a CPAC conference that brought together rightwing leaders from around the hemisphere. Members of this group directly viewed themselves as a counterweight to the "Foro de São Paulo'' group of leftwing political movements that have been organizing for decades in the region.
If analysts are going to separate out the various divisions within the left, it's worth doing so with the right as well. Most of these protests are led by a populist right that doesn't have the same "Washington Consensus" economic agenda that defined the region's political right in the 1990's and into the 2000's. The political class that represents the economic elite remains influential, but they aren't driving the narrative or the street mobilizations. As we saw with Bolsonaro in Brazil, they can be part of the movement but they aren’t in control of it..
As with the left, there are places where these competing visions of rightwing politics coordinate their efforts and others where they compete strongly with each other. Additionally, there are too many times when the more responsible center-right politicians coddle their authoritarian allies in the same ways too many center-left politicians around the region have been apologists for dictators in recent years.
Some of the left are going to frame all opposition as rightwing. That's currently occurring in Mexico where President Lopez Obrador has portrayed all of the protesters who marched against his electoral reforms as conservative. We know that is not true. There are plenty of centrists, center-left, and even far left movements who have risen up to oppose AMLO's political manipulations. But AMLO is correct that as he is uniting some of his political opponents, it may be the more conservative political parties that benefit the most from that anti-Morena opposition unity.
The left of the 2000's, particularly the Chavista-leaning politicians, emerged as a response to the Washington Consensus, and that failed framework of rightwing politics and economics has proven a useful foil for the left over the past two decades. But the left will miss its mark if it believes that it can simply lump the new wave of rightwing politics into the old framework. There is a populist strength to this movement that gets support from lower middle class and evangelical movements. The new politicians are not dogmatic about economics. If anything, they are happy to engage in spending to help their supporters and win votes from the left.
Moving into 2023, one trend to watch will be how these rightwing protests and their leaders coordinate or clash with those on the left who are also protesting. In environments where presidents have approval ratings below 30% and economic challenges hit the poor, there is plenty of discontent to go around. This can create some odd alliances of convenience or at least moments where both sides accidentally amplify each other. In Argentina, both the Kirchnerista left (backed by the vice president) and the right protest the government’s economic policies, placing pressure on the president and his cabinet. In Chile, leftwing protests against transportation cost increases are being planned even as rightwing truckers complain about very similar fuel cost challenges.
When the incentives are for both sides to protest, governing becomes more difficult and political space for outsiders to build coalitions across typical ideological cleavages emerges.
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