Region - The run up to the Summit

Prepare for a debate about who gets invited and who tries to run a parallel event.

The US will host the Summit of the Americas in June in Los Angeles.

Like many summits, a lot of small tactical things and useful bilateral meetings will get accomplished on the sidelines while some stupid controversy distracts from the overall meeting goals.

In spite of efforts to bring in the business community, civil society and other elements of political systems, the main event of the Summit is a meeting of presidents and prime ministers. In terms of presidents, the debate over who is and isn’t invited and who will attend is almost certain to dominate the coverage of the Summit in the months to come, overshadowing the issues to be discussed. 

My preference would be to invite everyone, but the US political reality makes that highly unlikely. At the very least, Cuba, Nicaragua and Maduro seem to be out (I say Maduro because Guaidó will be invited to represent Venezuela). There have also been questions about whether countries like El Salvador and Bolivia will be invited given that they were not invited to Biden’s Summit of Democracies. 

How will US opponents in the hemisphere counter-program?

Will Diaz-Canel, Maduro and Ortega hold an event or conduct some other action to try to distract from the Summit? Almost certainly yes. And they may try to bring others to join them. Some leaders like Arce or AMLO may try to attend both to show some “neutrality.” Additionally, with Argentina currently running CELAC, they may attempt to demonstrate that the group is more representative of Latin America’s interests.

Will Russia try to counter-program? Maybe. While it’s unlikely to be a key consideration for Putin, Russia’s actions in Ukraine could distract from and interfere with the Summit. At the very least, their propaganda machine will boost anti-US messages around the time of the Summit.

Will China try to counter-program? Probably not. China really loves the pomp and ceremony of international events and any attempt to counter-program the Summit of the Americas doesn’t set a precedent they would want used against them.

Perhaps the more interesting counter-programming threat comes from the non-left parts of Latin America’s populism and political spectrum. Nayib Bukele could host a counter-rally in Los Angeles or bring together a bunch of Bitcoin supporters as part of a counter-messaging strategy. Bolsonaro could hold a rally with Trump. 

Do or do not, there is no try.

To get this Summit correct, the Biden administration must focus on the Summit without being drawn to other issues. In terms of US interests globally, Latin America is more important than Eastern Europe, the Middle East or East Asia. If some crisis occurs in one of those regions and it pulls the president’s and other Biden administration officials’ attention away from the Summit, it will simply cement the impression that the US treats the region as a lower tier priority. If that occurs, it would be better to not host at all.