Region - Some questionable elections
The elections in Venezuela and Honduras are far from free and fair, but opposition parties must deal with the situation as it exists, not just wish for better conditions.
There are five events calling themselves elections in Latin America this month. Three have significant problems.
Nicaragua’s election fraud was a level that hasn’t been seen outside of Cuba in decades. Even the worst managed and least fair elections in Venezuela in recent years have attempted to create the appearance of space for the opposition to campaign. Ortega’s decision to throw seven opposition presidential candidates in prison and crack down on all dissent raised the bar on outright and blatant fraud.
Venezuela and Honduras are harder cases this year. Neither election is as fully dictatorial as Nicaragua. Both have allowed and even encouraged the participation of the opposition in the political debate. But both have serious problems and abuses that go well beyond the technical challenges that many ‘full’ and flawed democracies face.
The conditions in Venezuela are not fair. There is a long list of abuses that exists, but one stands out to me: Reports that citizens were forced to register their participation in the election in order to continue receiving food benefits is serious manipulation of the system and a continued use of food as a weapon by the Maduro regime. Many governments unfairly use public resources during campaigns, but actually threatening to withhold food from a population facing malnutrition and potential starvation is cruelty that totally undermines the democratic norms.
Citizen apathy in Venezuela has become a serious challenge to any political change. When people stop believing that change can occur via the ballot box or via the street, they turn inwards and focus on their own survival. It’s fair to say in Nicaragua that the lack of participation should be seen as a rejection of the Ortega regime. In Venezuela, the lack of participation is more complicated. For many voters, it’s a passive rejection of the political system and hope for political change as a whole rather than an active abstentionist strategy to punish Maduro (though there were certainly a small and vocal group of Maduro opponents who abstained for that reason).
This adds to the many challenges for Maduro’s opponents. They need to get the government to agree to elections, they need those elections to be held somewhat fairly (they’ll never be totally fair, but sometimes you have to play the hand you’re dealt), and then they need to convince the population to show up and vote for change, which they no longer seem eager to do.
The conditions in Honduras, even if they allow for a transfer of power (yet to be seen), are a mess. After the fraud in 2017, citizens lack trust in the electoral institutions. Homicides, threats and corruption linked to this election campaign have created a climate of fear that puts the validity of the vote in doubt. International Crisis Group published a new report today for those who want to read more.
The night of the election results in Honduras will likely see a vote count and a negotiation. It may take hours or weeks. Elections should just be based on the counting of votes, not the negotiations of terms among parties after the votes have been cast. But the reality of quasi-authoritarian systems participating in semi-open elections like what is currently occurring under President Hernandez is that they always negotiate the close electoral outcomes.
In recent weeks, my take on the election is that Xiomara Castro is winning by 5-15 points and the National Party can only credibly steal a few points before the fraud becomes too blatant. This analysis leads to three potential scenarios:
Castro has a small (five point) lead, the National Party steals the election by manipulating some rural voting precincts and gets away with it after a few weeks of protests and negotiations. It shouldn’t happen, but it could.
Castro has a large (15 point) lead, the National Party realizes that stealing the election isn’t viable, and there is a negotiated transition of power.
Castro has a 15 point lead, the National Party steals the election or prevents her from taking power in some ugly and inelegant way, and there are major domestic and international crises.
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