Region - Politicized gangs

Haiti's challenges with politicized gangs are part of a regional trend.

The assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in Haiti last week highlights several trends in the Western Hemisphere that go well beyond the island of Hipaniola. For today’s newsletter, this is an opportunity to discuss politicized gangs. 

There is sometimes a desire to separate violent groups into categories with two separate motivations: ideological revolutionaries on one side and profit-motivated criminals on the other. Haiti is just one of many situations that demonstrate that the line can be blurred. While the hemisphere has previously seen ideological groups turn to crime, the current trend is that for-profit gangs are moving into politics or get pulled into politics by actors who should be governing without violence.

Prior to his death, President Moïse was accused of working with gangs in Haiti to intimidate and repress political opponents. Several of Moïse’s opponents also allegedly contracted with criminal gangs to engage in political violence. The kidnapping wave that has hit Haiti in recent years was driven mostly by profit, but also included gangs targeting political and business elite as well as police officers as a way to gain leverage.

Haitian authorities currently blame Moïse’s death on foreign mercenaries rather than local gangs (a topic for a future newsletter), but this politicized gang violence was a key contribution to the conditions of Haiti’s recent governance problems. As I wrote in yesterday’s newsletter (given the interest I’ve dropped the paywall on the article this morning so non-subscribers can read it), the gang situation is likely to lead to a messier political transition. While the gangs will not be directly involved in any power-sharing negotiations, various political factions may use their connections with the gangs to obtain leverage.

Mexico. Mexico’s midterm elections saw significant numbers of candidates, particularly at the municipal level, assassinated as part of the efforts by criminal organizations to influence the political debate. As I wrote the week prior to the election, criminal groups weren’t necessarily trying to influence the national vote, but they did want to make sure that local candidates would provide impunity for their crimes. 

With the election now over and AMLO focused on consolidating political control and regaining momentum on his energy and infrastructure initiatives, the criminal groups that killed so many to impact the elections are not facing any pushback from the government. Impunity for the violence sends a message that criminals can use force to influence politics and politicians and create more favorable conditions for their operations.

El Salvador. President Bukele has a pact with MS-13 that gives the gang leadership better conditions to operate in exchange for less violence and political support. That pact may now extend to a reduction in extraditions, something Bukele achieved by manipulating the court system. InSight Crime has more details. 

Venezuela. One big story out of Venezuela in recent weeks was the violence caused by El Koki’s gang in Cota 905 of Caracas. The gang directly challenged government security forces, engaged in gun battles and stole weapons from police and military units. El Koki appears to understand that he can use violence as leverage against Maduro, posting videos online to create what Caracas Chronicles’ PRR called the “humiliation of the regime’s image.” Maduro is now taking the situation more seriously, engaging in a violent crackdown in Cota 905.

The urban violence comes just weeks after high-profile regime losses to a FARC dissident group led by Gentil Duarte. The FARC’s tenth front has managed to directly take on Venezuelan military units. They kidnapped soldiers and forced Maduro to negotiate for their release.

Maduro has tried to pin the blame for these losses by his security forces on his political opponents, using the recent violence as an excuse to crack down on Guaido and his allies. Guaido has nothing to do with this. 

Maduro’s problem is that while his security forces are quite capable of repressing unarmed political opponents, they are being embarrassed by criminal groups that choose to challenge the regime’s monopoly on extortion. The criminalization of the state has incentivized for-profit gangs to politicize their efforts. Gangs need to compete on multiple fronts including politics and social media if they want to survive and thrive under the Maduro regime.

Honduras. To the extent politicized gangs are a regional trend, it is worth monitoring how criminal gangs and drug trafficking organizations attempt to influence the election in Honduras later this year. As in Venezuela, the Honduran regime runs their own criminal operations to traffic in drugs. Other criminal groups that have seen their operations disrupted by Hernandez’s presidency will have a unique opportunity to use a mixture of politics and violence displace a dominant actor in the criminal space.

Thanks for reading

I’m back to my normal schedule. Subscribers received a newsletter about Haiti yesterday and will get the usual Wednesday politics and polls newsletter tomorrow. Please consider subscribing to support this newsletter and receive additional content.