Region - Covid update - September 2021
Let’s enjoy some good news. South America has experienced a sudden drop in Covid cases and deaths.
This was a great headline from the New York Times last week. It also matched what I’m experiencing here in Bogota and hearing from others around South America. The data show an absolutely dramatic drop in cases and deaths.
Some of this improvement may be due to how many people caught Covid during the recent waves of infections. But the rapid pace of vaccinations definitely also correlates strongly with the drop in infections and deaths.
That is a great improvement in many of the region’s most populous countries and Chile is in the top ten globally. Importantly, getting vaccines done in crowded urban areas has been critical to preventing the spread of Covid. At least 70% of people in Bogota have received one dose and 47% have received both doses.
Anti-vax protests have not swept LatAm
Disinformation about vaccines and masks has not moved public opinion as much and does not appear to have held back vaccination campaigns thus far. That is in spite of a significant spread of disinformation around the region and in spite of major disinformation impacting the Latino population in places like Miami that are central to information flows around the region. I personally heard plenty of crazy claims about the vaccines in Colombia and from sources around Latin America. But the disinformation didn’t translate into action. Protests against vaccines and vaccine mandates were small and rare. People were more willing to accept vaccines, even if they had their doubts and even if they had heard some false scary story on social media about someone who received the vaccines.
Another wave is possible (but I can’t say likely)
The recent drop doesn’t mean the region is out of the woods yet. I’ve heard predictions from a few epidemiologists who believe that a Delta wave spike is likely in the coming months. I’ve read some official government predictions that suggest officials around the region expect a new wave of cases in the coming two months. I don’t have good data or insights beyond those comments. It’s possible they are correct and possible are just being overly cautious. However, I do know that another wave is possible, even if I don’t know if it is likely. Vaccination rates are not high enough. The experiences in the US, Europe, Israel and other places with high vaccination rates demonstrate that an additional wave is possible.
Mexico is facing Delta wave now
While cases and deaths have dropped in South America, the numbers of deaths per capita in Mexico is at the highest levels of the pandemic so far and closely matches the recent rise in cases in deaths in the US. Mexico has undercounted cases throughout the pandemic worse than most of its South American counterparts, but it’s highly likely that case levels in Mexico are also near all time highs at the moment.
Economic pain and security challenges remain
The fact that cases have dropped does not mean economic challenges have gone away. Even with significant economic growth in some countries around the region, the economic disruption caused by the pandemic continues. Many people were pushed into the informal sector and the return to formal sector employment has been very slow. Inflation is high, particularly related to food prices, something that has a high impact on the poor. In addition, security conditions around the region worsened due to the economic downturn and, to generalize, those security challenges do not appear to be improving in most countries. Homicides and violent crime remain worse than pre-pandemic levels in most of South America’s largest cities.
Thanks for reading
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