Region - Covid update - June 2021
Much of Latin America is at the worst point of the pandemic.
Globally, coronavirus cases and deaths have dropped in recent weeks. However, in South America, the situation remains a serious crisis. Every country in South America has a higher rate of new deaths per capita than the United States. Currently, Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina and Colombia all have deaths per capita rates higher than the worst seven day average experienced by the US in early January. Cases and deaths in Brazil, while doing better now than in April, remain at dangerously high levels. Test positivity rates in many countries are above 20% or even 30%, a sign that the numbers of cases, while being reported at record high levels, are still being undercounted.
Source: Our World in Data
In late April I wrote a post titled “The politics of Covid is generating anger and apathy.” If anything, the situation has worsened in a number of countries. Some brief updates below.
Argentina - Fernandez’s approval rating continues to fall as the country goes in and out of lockdowns. The country remains in a big fight over whether schools should remain virtual or return to in-person classes. Clarin covered the issue today along with a graphic discussing the impact of the recent lockdowns.
Colombia - Even as the country faces pandemic and protests, the economic reopening is being prioritized because public frustration at the shutdowns is simply that high. Bogota is fully reopening its economy today even as it is experiencing the worst moment of the pandemic. Hospital ICU capacity is above 95% and the situation is likely worse than the statistics show. My kids’ school remains shut down due to the high number of cases in the city. But bars and restaurants can now stay open until 1AM.
Mexico - While South America is doing poorly, Mexico’s case rates and death rates have dropped significantly. The country has systematically undercounted cases and deaths throughout this entire pandemic, meaning it is difficult to do an accurate comparison, but it’s clearly doing better now than it was several months ago. Some credit should be given to the vaccination campaign, but Mexico is also likely experiencing some benefits of bordering the United States where the vaccination effort has gone exceedingly well.
Polling in Mexico has shown that people who have been vaccinated are much more likely to support Lopez Obrador than those who have not, one factor that likely kept AMLO from facing a worse outcome in this past weekend’s elections.
Venezuela - The WSJ published an excellent article on the undercount of cases in Venezuela including the deaths of many healthcare workers. The Maduro regime continues to block vaccine importations and access to the vaccine by political opponents.
Vaccine diplomacy - The Biden administration is promising millions of additional vaccine donations, most via COVAX, but as I wrote in April, the general impression around the region is that those donations are too slow and not enough. Other countries still aren’t doing better in vaccine geopolitics. Deliveries of vaccines from Russia have been delayed, leaving many countries that were counting on those vaccines lacking. China’s vaccine has been purchased and utilized, but has faced a worsening reputation in the region as Chile and Uruguay continue to fight virus outbreaks in spite of high vaccination levels. I had once hoped that competition would lead to greater vaccine donations. Instead, it’s led to various countries criticizing each other’s efforts while being slow to improve their own.
As I wrote back in early February, I remain optimistic that a wave of vaccine supplies will hit the region in the second half of this year. At some point in the coming months, each country in the region will hit a surprise tipping point going from low vaccination rates and high demand to challenges in distribution and convincing people to sign up. Governments that are prepared for those challenges will do best and may see political and economic benefits.
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Have a good afternoon.