Protests likely to increase across region in March 2020
Planned protests in some countries plus conditions for protests in others mean March 2020 is likely to see increased protests across Latin America and the Caribbean
March 2020 is shaping up to be a hot month for protests throughout Latin America.
Organizers plan what they hope to be large protests in Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela and Chile.
As of late February, protests in Brazil, the Dominican Republic and Haiti threaten to grow in the coming weeks.
There are conditions for protests to swiftly emerge in Honduras, Ecuador, Bolivia or Argentina - all four of which saw significant protests in 2019 - should the right spark come along.
The protest movements in each country have their own distinct details and each must be analyzed individually. There is no single ideology or goal of the various movements. As I wrote last year, these protests and the government responses to them are not happening in isolation. The protesters watch each other, learn from each other, take inspiration from each other. Governments monitor what sort of strategies work on the negotiation-to-repression continuum and also watch how strongly and consistently international criticism occurs in the wake of abuses by security forces.
Worth monitoring are variables that make a protest more likely to escalate in terms of size, violence or length of time:
Government repression (in democratic countries) that leads to injuries or deaths of protesters.
The presence of small violent organizations that aim to destroy public transportation infrastructure, government buildings or loot stores. In many cases, the presence of small violent cells leads to the government repression that angers the general population
Disgruntled security forces who are engaging in their own protests.
The presence of pro-government counter-protesters who are eager to engage in clashes with protesting groups.
The addition of organized transportation workers and unions to protests, as they have the ability to tie up traffic and slow deliveries of supplies.
While specific protest dates are planned, violence and unrest are not confined only to those dates. Chile and Colombia are good examples of locations where protest organizers will attempt multiple scheduled and unscheduled protests. In Venezuela, in addition to the large protest organized by Guaido, local social movements will continue to organize protests of several hundred people that will largely pass under the radar, but each provides the potential for escalation. Unscheduled protests challenge governments by preventing them from prepositioning resources to easily contain and repress.
With that caveat, here are some specific protests planned or likely for the coming month:
Brazil - In February, Brazil saw strikes by Petrobras workers as well as police strikes in the Northeast. While no large protests are currently planned, the potential for police protests to spread to other states is high. Public sector workers, in particular police, feel they are hurting in the current economic environment, even as state budgets to provide raises or additional benefits are limited.
Chile - Chile’s traditional February vacation was not as quiet as usual, with occasional protests continuing and violent protests last weekend in Viña del Mar. Polling shows the population expects more and violent protests in the coming two months leading up to the constitutional referendum. A large protest is currently scheduled for 11 March, the two year anniversary of Piñera taking office. As with Mexico, expect protests on 8 or 9 March timed to International Women’s Day. However, even before these dates, there will likely be several peaceful and violent protests that occur.
Colombia - There is an expectation by local analysts for larger protests to occur in March. There are discussions of taxi drivers and other transportation workers joining the protests, something that could add to the protests’ size and ability to disrupt citizens’ commutes.. 8 March and 25 March appear to be the two dates with the most organization, but several other protests are planned throughout the month.
Above: Student protest “electoral fraud” in the DR
Dominican Republic - Election protests continue in the DR. The redo of the vote on 15 March using paper ballots may become a spark for additional anti-government demonstrations, particularly if there are any problems.
Ecuador - Conaie has broken from the government and is taking a more radical line in recent weeks, with Jaime Vargas proclaiming himself the “second president” of Ecuador as the leader of the country’s indigenous communities. No specific protest dates are planned, but the group is likely to enter protests when the government cuts fuel subsidies in the coming two months.
Guyana - While no protests are planned, elections scheduled for 2 March could create tensions and the conditions for protests should the results be close or the losing side claim fraud.
Haiti - The past week has seen protests around Carnival involving shooting between police and military. The government has cancelled additional Carnival celebrations and is in the process of a constitutional rewrite. This is a situation likely to see additional violent protests in the coming days and weeks.
Mexico - Women will protest femicides and the AMLO government’s lack of response to the issue on 9 March. As I wrote yesterday, expect the government to mobilize pro-AMLO counter-protesters in the capital. The Zapatistas have called for a protest on 20-22 March. Expectations for that protest are low as the Zapatistas lack influence, but it could grow bigger if other movements including teachers’ unions join.
Venezuela - Guaido has called for a large protest on 10 March. He has been supporting smaller protests in cities outside of Caracas and there will likely be small protests leading up to the 10 March event. Venezuela is in a situation in which the big protests are growing smaller (there are few giant protests blocking all of Caracas in recent months) but the small protests are growing bigger, with hundreds turning out including numerous members of the working class that have their own leadership structures separate from the traditional “opposition” political movements. This bottom-up organization of protests is something Guaido seems to want to work with, but does not control.
Thanks for reading
Comments and questions are always welcome. Please forward this email to friends and colleagues who are interested in this topic and encourage them to sign up for my free weekly newsletter at https://boz.substack.com. In addition to the free weekly newsletter and occasional updates such as this one, readers can support this newsletter and receive more in-depth analysis for $9 per month.