Presidential Corruption Allegations and Impeachment processes - June 2025
I made a map while tracking corruption issues and impeachment processes around the hemisphere
I’m engaged in a longer research project on how and why presidents leave office early. In the modern era, Latin American presidents are more likely to be forced out due to institutional battles and impeachment-like processes than they are in coups. That means tracking these processes is important for monitoring institutional stability. So I decided to sketch out a map of where various countries are right now.
A few notes:
Yes, debate these and tell me why I’m wrong. The maps I make are subjective. They are intended to spur thought and commentary, rather than being a professional and definitive source of wisdom.
I somewhat ignore the specific impeachment and presidential removal mechanisms, the fact that they vary from country to country, and the specific math in the Congress. But the specifics of the process do matter. The process for presidential removal is far easier in some countries (Peru and Paraguay) than in others (Mexico and the United States, for example).
How these processes lead to early exits is often not straightforward. Ecuadorian President Lasso and Peruvian President Castillo are great examples of that. One called snap elections and resigned before he could be impeached, while the other attempted an auto-golpe while facing an investigation that might have led to impeachment. That’s why it’s worth tracking the general political narrative and process, not just the specific impeachment mechanisms.
Brief country explanations:
Mexico - I don’t know of a specific issue where Sheinbaum might face an investigation that could threaten her hold on power. This could have also been orange on the map given her level of control.
Guatemala - There are about a dozen impeachment cases against President Arevalo and they are all fake. All impeachment attempts have been blocked so far, but it is a real threat to his presidency.
Honduras - There are questions about corruption within the Zelaya-Castro family, including whether anyone took payments from drug traffickers. The scandals haven’t gone anywhere, and investigations are unlikely to move forward, especially with the election just a few months away.
El Salvador - Bukele is having the US cover up evidence of his illegal negotiations with MS-13. There are a few other corruption scandals that would rise to impeachment level in other countries. I considered coloring this red, but I hold out some hope that Bukele’s control is not as consolidated as he may hope and his critics fear.
Nicaragua - Obvious. Nothing else to say other than I’m monitoring the news about the assassination of a retired military officer in exile in Costa Rica, and I’ll be writing about it in the coming weeks.
Costa Rica - Chaves is accused of illegal campaign financing. The Supreme Court will take up the case of whether to lift his immunity from prosecution.
Panama - I don’t think there is a specific case against Mulino at the moment, but there are numerous cases targeting former presidents and members of Congress. It wouldn’t surprise me if the president gets caught up in some probe in the future. Panamanians are really angry about corruption.
Colombia - So many scandals, including several involving the financing of Petro’s 2022 campaign. There are also questions of whether the president is exceeding his constitutional authority in calling for a referendum. Despite the constant flood of controversy, none of those scandals appears likely to reach the level of potential impeachment in the Congress, especially this close to an election.
Venezuela - A coup is more likely than an impeachment.
Ecuador - Could have also been dark or light green. There are a lot of lingering scandals from Noboa’s first term, including how he treated his vice president, which she argued was an impeachable offense. Additionally, his emergency declaration against the gangs in early 2024 may have had constitutional issues that opposition politicians suggested could be an impeachable offense. For now, Noboa has enough control of the legislature and the courts to avoid any issues.
Peru - So many scandals, with Rolexgate and the fact President Boluarte disappeared for a few weeks in 2023 without informing the Congress topping the list. There are investigations. Congress could take any of them up at any time.
Bolivia - There is not a specific corruption concern that might force out Arce, despite all the general instability, economic crisis, and the coup attempt he faced last year.
Brazil - The president spent time in prison before taking office. The Lava Jato and Odebrecht scandals ensnared him and people close to him. Dilma Rousseff was impeached. All that points to potential problems for Brazil’s president, but still, there is nothing in Lula’s current term for which the Congress appears ready to investigate him. Plus, they don’t want an Alckmin presidency that would hurt the opposition’s chances in next year’s election.
Paraguay - There have been various scandals involving President Peña, including a question about how his government may have purchased spyware linked to a contractor who is a close friend of the president. The Colorado Party has such tight control over the system that this could arguably also be orange or red on the map, but divisions within the ruling party mean that they can hold the impeachment potential over the president’s head. I can’t dismiss it as easily as I can in say El Salvador.
Chile - Boric has faced specific scandals involving the financing of an NGO and a sexual harassment allegation. To his credit, he has not blocked any of the investigations, and they have gone nowhere as evidence specifically against him has been weak or discredited. For that reason, I could have arguably colored this light green as well.
Argentina - There was a big crypto scandal, but the investigation into it has been shut down by the president. The Congress may still raise the issue in the future.
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