Prediction markets: Regime change in Venezuela - November 2025
Thinking about the recent changes in the probabilities that the US will strike Venezuela and that Maduro will be forced out.
Back on November 1, on Polymarket, the odds of a US military strike on land or against a Venezuelan military target were 65%. The odds of Maduro leaving power before the end of the year were 25%.
Today, November 10, the odds of a US military strike are at about 25% and the odds of Maduro leaving power before the end of the year are 13%.
This leads to at least four questions:
Why has the conventional wisdom on both of these questions plummeted over the past 10 days?
Both ten days ago and today, why is there such a gap between the US military strikes and the regime change question?
Is that gap justified?
Are any of these prediction market numbers accurate?
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