Potential Brazil Sanctions and other US Policy news in LatAm - 2 June 2025

Also, I try to frame Mexico's grand strategy within the TACO meme.

I write about US policy in Latin America every Monday. In today’s newsletter:

1. Are US sanctions against Brazil coming? (no paywall on this one)

2. Mexico’s TACO strategy

3. Secret Chevron License in Venezuela

4. Venezuela travel warning turned up from 4 to 11

5. TPS deportations

6. Short thoughts on Spheres of Influence

Thanks to everyone who pays to subscribe. If someone forwarded you this newsletter, please consider subscribing to receive it every week. Additionally, feel free to respond to this email with feedback, comments, and questions.

The US government is likely to sanction Brazilian Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes (recent profiles from the Economist and New Yorker). Why does the Trump administration want to do this? Take your pick of the following reasons, not mutually exclusive:

1. Free Speech Protection: Moraes is responsible for censorship and restrictions on US technology companies, and

   1. There are people within the Trump administration who legitimately view those attacks as harming democracy

   2. (or you can argue they cynically and selectively claim that view when convenient).

2. Revenge: One of those companies targeted by Moraes is Twitter/X, which is owned by Elon Musk. Musk remains quite influential in the Trump administration.

   1. It could also be due to pressure from Meta and WhatsApp. Or Rumble, a conservative social media site that Moraes has targeted and which appears to be part of a recent letter about potential sanctions. There isn’t a shortage of tech companies that are influential with Trump and unhappy with Moraes.

3. Pressure from the Bolsonaro family: Brazil’s former president has been among the other targets of Moraes, and one of the former president’s sons has been lobbying the Trump administration to sanction the judge.

4. Hitting Lula: Key allies of the Trump administration, correctly or not, believe Moraes is tied to Lula. Because of this, they may believe that hitting the Brazilian judge is an early strategic move to ensure Lula does not win reelection next year.

5. Pressure against BRICS: The Trump administration wants to fight against China’s influence in the region and hitting Brazil prior to the big BRICS meeting in July is one way to do it. As I wrote at the 100 day point, there will likely be additional tensions and threats of sanctions prior to the BRICS summit in Brazil in July.

It’s that fourth explanation that should be monitored most closely. Moraes has made plenty of enemies, and it’s possible the Trump admin just wants to target him. But various Trump-leaning consultants and advisors have also shown intense interest in Brazil and Bolsonaro over the years. While Rubio isn’t one of the adamant pro-Bolsonaro officials, the Secretary of State is also not a fan of Lula. He will likely go along with and perhaps even lead efforts to put pressure on the Brazilian government in the coming year. That would suggest this is a slow start to something that will build over the coming 18 months into a bigger controversy/dispute.

Three concluding thoughts:

1. To the best of my knowledge, this is not a decision being made by Trump. It’s being made by lower level advisors, and the president is simply going along with it for all the usual reasons.

2. I can theorize a split similar to Venezuela in which a group of pro-business Republicans push back against US sanctions on Brazil. The sanctions are bad for business, and they may increase the cost of compliance for any project in South America’s largest economy. That seems like a great theory, but I have yet to see it in practice. There isn’t a Grenell-led group pushing back against these sanctions.

3. How will Moraes react? The Brazilian justice isn’t known for just quietly accepting criticism and his fate. He is one of the most powerful people in the country and knows how to use the levers of the judiciary to apply pressure.

My World Politics Review column today starts with a dad joke pun about Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum understanding the logic behind TACO before anyone else. It moves to more serious analysis from there.