Politics and Polls - 9 December 2020
A new poll in Argentina and absurd results from Venezuela's non-election
I cover recent polls every Wednesday. If you want to be added to the newsletter distribution list, please enter your email at https://boz.substack.com/ or email me at boz@substack.com and I will add you.
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Two items today:
Argentina - The rise of the Ni-Ni
Venezuela - Maduro’s side makes up the results as they go
Argentina - The rise of the Ni-Ni
Giacobbe regularly asks voters whether they want the government to win or lose in the midterm elections. For months, this poll (which definitely leans anti-Fernandez) has shown a majority wanting the government to lose the midterms.
However, their most recent poll from late November showed the number of voters saying it doesn’t matter (“me da lo mismo”) increasing seven points to 21%. Both the government and its opponents lost ground to the “none of the above” option in the poll.
A positive way to view the poll is that it suggests reduced polarization from the Peronist vs anti-Peronist fight. That would be good if it led to more compromise and productive solutions, but that does not appear to be happening within the country’s political battles.
A negative interpretation of the polls is that the country is becoming disillusioned with the entire political class. There are several bad potential outcomes that can occur in that scenario including stagnation in the political system as people stop participating or the rise of a new populist movement (separate from Peronism) that takes advantage of the anger at the political class.
That’s perhaps reading too much into a single poll number, but it’s an issue that may be worth monitoring.
Venezuela - Maduro’s side makes up the results as they go
Last weekend wasn’t really an election in Venezuela, so you shouldn’t read too deeply into the numbers the Maduro regime published. Maduro’s side says there was around 30% turnout and they won 67% of the vote. The Guaido team says turnout was closer to 20% and the results weren’t accurately reported.
However, the antics of recent days show Maduro can’t even create imaginary election results without screwing it up.
The CNE announced that Luis Parra had failed to win a legislative seat while running in the local list from Yaracuy. A day later, the CNE announced that he had won a seat from his party’s national list even though he wasn’t on the national list. It appears Parra negotiated his way into the new legislature when he failed to win a seat, a sign of the farce that this election was. Parra is the “opposition” member of parliament who was lobbying for Alex Saab. He was also the leader of the group that betrayed Guaido in January and tried to take over the legislature.
One additional embarrassment occurred involving Maduro’s own voting location, which the CNE changed mid-day so Maduro could vote from inside the military base and not have to go to a virtually empty public polling location. Changing voting locations in the middle of an election day to benefit the ruling party leader is a clear sign of a rigged system.
Thanks for reading
Have a great afternoon.