I cover recent polls every Wednesday. If you want to be added to the newsletter distribution list, please enter your email at https://boz.substack.com/ or email me at boz@substack.com and I will add you.
Three items today:
Bolivia - Polls without Añez show uncertain first round
Mexico - AMLO gets polling boost from anti-corruption rhetoric
Colombia - Trust in police declines
Bolivia - Polls without Añez show uncertain first round
The initial polls without President Añez in the campaign continue to show a race in which Luis Arce, the candidate for the MAS, is very close to a first round victory.
Ciesmori has Arce 31, Mesa 25, Camacho 13. With undecideds removed, that gives Arce 41% and Mesa 34%, within the ten point margin to force a second round.
Above: Graphic of Ciesmori poll from Pagina Siete
CELAG has the race Arce 36, Mesa 28, Camacho 13. Those numbers would be just enough to give Arce a ten point margin. In a hypothetical second round, CELAG has Mesa slightly ahead, but well within the margin of error for the poll.
In that CELAG poll, 40% of Bolivians say they are still not certain of how they will vote. While the narrative of this campaign is an electorate polarized between MAS and anti-MAS candidates, most recent polls show there are a large number of swing and undecided voters.
Based on the numbers from the polls above, it appears that Añez’s withdrawal from the campaign did not give either Mesa or Camacho the necessary boost to definitively prevent a potential MAS victory.
Mexico - AMLO gets polling boost from anti-corruption rhetoric
A new poll from El Financiero suggests a small boost to AMLO’s approval rating, having it rise from 59% to 62%. Two sets of numbers from the poll caught my attention.
In the past month, Lopez Obrador received a giant swing of support for his anti-corruption policies. 55% of voters believe that corruption has declined while AMLO has been president.
70% of people say they support AMLO’s referendum to investigate past corruption and 75% say they will vote in favor of the referendum (a number that gets an additional boost because 10% of people say they won’t vote on it).
Above: Graphic from El Financiero
Asking about poverty and insecurity, 36% and 34% say those have reduced. Unlike corruption, which is difficult to measure, there are rather solid statistics showing neither poverty nor insecurity have reduced under AMLO. The 35% or so of voters who are willing to believe something that is absolutely not true likely represents AMLO’s base of support.
Perhaps more important for Mexico’s president, the poll shows 39% of voters will support Morena in the midterm elections. That is the highest number AMLO’s party has received since May 2019 and stops a decline that threatened to make his opponents competitive.
Colombia - Trust in police declines
A poll in Bogota shows declining trust in police following recent high-profile police abuse incidents. Some of the key numbers:
56% say they are dissatisfied with how the police operate.
83% want police reform.
60% oppose the use of tear gas to break up protests.
Over 90% oppose police using firearms to attack protesters.
While 30% believe that protesters have a right to block roads, over 75% reject the use of any violence by protesters and fewer than 5% believe that the burning of the police stations was justified during recent protests.
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