Politics and Polls - 6 January 2021
New polls from Brazil, Ecuador and Mexico
I cover recent polls every Wednesday and I’m catching up from taking two weeks off from doing this. If you want to be added to the newsletter distribution list, please enter your email at https://boz.substack.com/ or email me at boz@substack.com and I will add you.
Three items today:
Brazil - Brazilians view the economic situation poorly; so does the president
Ecuador - Arauz leads CELAG poll; Lasso leads Cedatos poll
Mexico - AMLO starts the year above 60%
Brazil - Brazilians view the economic situation poorly; so does the president
The Datafolha poll in December showed only 28% believe that the country’s economy will improve in the coming months and only 31% believe their personal economic situation will improve. Both of those numbers have declined significantly in the past 18 months. There is usually a large gap between people’s views of their country and personal economic situation and that gap has narrowed as well.
Bolsonaro was quoted this week as saying that “Brazil is broke and I can’t do anything.” [“O Brasil está quebrado, e eu não consigo fazer nada.”] With economic subsidies and benefits running out, the president blamed the media for promoting coronavirus and blocking his economic and tax agenda.
Ecuador - Arauz leads CELAG poll; Lasso leads Cedatos poll
A Cedatos poll conducted in November and published in early December has the election Lasso 23%, Arauz 13%, Perez 11%. In that poll, 37% of voters were undecided or said they would cast a protest vote.
CELAG published a poll in late December showing Ecuador’s presidential election at Arauz 37%, Noboa 23%, Perez 22%, Lasso 14%. These numbers have had undecided and protest votes removed, and other polls late last year showed a large percentage of the population did not have a preferred candidate. That means all of these candidates have less support than the number provided and the margin of error is likely greater than the two percent that is offered.
CELAG also polled people about Rafael Correa and says 47% think his presidency was good, 35% say average and only 14% say it was bad. If accurate, it suggests that ties to Correa are not as much of a burden on Arauz as some other polling has shown.
Whenever I write about CELAG polls, I’ve had readers comment about CELAG’s leftist tilt. Their sample seems to favor the left compared to other polls. Their analyses on the polls (and the media that cover them) are definitely left leaning. I’ve seen the reports that they have gotten funding from some leftist sources including some close ties for former President Correa in Ecuador. But as best I can tell, these polls are being done legitimately (they aren’t just making up numbers), and so I include them.
Meanwhile, former President Correa has spent a lot of time and energy criticizing Cedatos and claiming they are biased against him and the candidates he supports. While Cedatos certainly has some rightwing clients, their polling has a track record in Ecuador that shows them to do a decent and impartial job in a tough polling environment.
I wouldn’t rely on either polling firm exclusively, but both polls are data points worth considering and their numbers deserve to be in the mix when analyzing an election that has very few data points. The best thing to do is to look at all the polls and aggregate them.
One difference between the polls is the presence of Alvaro Noboa, whose candidacy remains up in the air. Noboa would almost certainly pull votes from Lasso in the first round, though how many is unclear.
Americas Quarterly published an analysis of the ideological preferences of Arauz, Lasso and Perez based on interviews with academics.
Mexico - AMLO starts the year above 60%
El Financiero published a poll this week showing AMLO with 62% approval and 34% disapproval.
However, only 28% believe Mexico is on the right track while 34% say it is on the wrong track. That is a significant drop from late 2019 when 46% said the country was on the right track. Concerns about coronavirus and the economic fallout have been rising in recent months.
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