Politics and Polls - 30 September 2020
Argentina’s president is down and Brazil’s president is up
Argentina - Fernandez dropping
A string of negative polls for Argentina’s president suggests his approval ratings are declining.
Giacobbe Consultores has President Fernandez at 37% approval and 49% disapproval. That’s better than his vice prresident, who has 28% approval and 61% disapproval.
Above: Slide from Giacobbe shows approval for key political figures in Argentina
Synopsis has Fernandez at 38% approval and 49% disapproval. Vice President Kirchner has 29% approval. In April, the president had 27 points above his vice president.
The other important number from the Synopsis poll is that the number of people who give President Fernandez the blame for the current economic situation has risen from 42% to 55%.
A poll from Poliarquia asking about Fernandez’s response to Coronavirus has him at 53% approval and 39% disapproval. Another question put the president’s general approval rating at 47%. Both numbers are gradually declining.
These are among the worst polls Fernandez has seen. I have heard that several pollsters who lean more in favor of the governing party continue to have the president above 50%, though he is declining in those polls as well.
Fernandez coronavirus crisis boost in approval ratings has played itself out about as well as he could have hoped. He gained approval and political capital at a key moment as he negotiated with international bond markets. Now that boost is waning.
It is very likely that Fernandez will see his approval ratings fall further in the months to come. There is anger at the prolonged lockdown and the associated economic downturn and that anger has turned against the government with the continued rise in virus cases. The additional economic measures announced in recent weeks will add to the economic pain that many citizens are feeling. (Increasing taxes on people’s Netflix subscription while requiring them to remain in the house is a particularly painful and unpopular move.)
It is unclear if and how Fernandez’s opponents can capitalize on his decline. Most of the same polls showing the president’s poor approval rating list former President Mauricio Macri as doing worse. While Macri only represents one branch of Fernandez’s opponents, he is the highest profile opposition leader and no moderate and popular opposition leader appears to be rising to take his place.
Brazil - Bolsonaro approval rises in key poll
Ibope published a poll from mid-September showing Bolsonaro with 40% approval and 29% disapproval. This is a major turnaround from their December poll showing 29% approval and 38% disapproval. A differently worded question asking Brazilians how they view Bolsonaro’s governance of the country showed him with 50% approval.
The Ibope numbers matter because their polling operation is considered among the most credible in Brazil. They’ve published far fewer polls this year.
The Ibope poll confirms the rise in approval that has been seen in other recent polls of Bolsonaro. Analysts in Brazil credit the president’s economic stimulus payments for his rise in popularity. This week, Bolsonaro announced a new plan to pay for extending those social benefits that have given him the approval boost, but that budget may not be fiscally sustainable.
I have not seen signs that the president’s higher approval ratings are translating into support for his allies or rejection of his opponents in the upcoming municipal elections. However, polling for those elections is minimal outside of the largest cities and municipal elections each have their own local issues and personalities that aren’t necessarily shaped by national politics. One question I will be attempting to answer in the coming month is what represents a “victory” and what represents a “defeat” for the president in the municipal elections.
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