Politics and Polls - 25 November 2020
Polls from Chile, Peru, Mexico and Venezuela
I cover recent polls every Wednesday. If you want to be added to the newsletter distribution list, please enter your email at https://boz.substack.com/ or email me at boz@substack.com and I will add you.
Four items today:
Chile - Pension withdrawals are popular
Peru - Merino was very, very unpopular
Mexico - Polls show support for AMLO and mixed opinions about Covid-19 responses
Venezuela - Majority of the country does not like any living political leaders
Chile - Pension withdrawals are popular
The Congress hit 30% approval in the Cadem poll in mid-November, its highest number since 2015. That appears to be in response to the Congressional vote to allow additional pension withdrawals.
Pamela Jiles, the congresswoman leading the effort, has seen a major spike in her poll numbers. Jiles had 65% approval, the highest of any Chilean politician. Her numbers as a potential presidential candidate have also risen. A Cadem poll related to the election published this week shows Jiles as the only candidate who is tied head to head in a hypothetical second round against Joaquin Lavin, the current mayor of Las Condes. Against other candidates, her numbers run in the mid-40’s, higher than anyone else.
Source: Cadem
President Piñera is at 16% approval and 73% disapproval. Both of Chile’s past two presidents have spent significant amounts of time at net negative approval ratings. It’s a sign of a population unhappy at the system and political class more than any specific left-right issue.
Peru - Merino was very, very unpopular
It’s hard to poll about politics when a president lasts less than a week in office. However, IEP managed to capture the moment in which Merino was in power.
During his brief time in office, only 5% of Peruvians supported the presidency of Manuel Merino and somewhere over 90% rejected the manner in which he came into office. 73% supported the protest movement that opposed Merino and 37% said they participated in the protests in some manner.
As he left office, IEP says Martin Vizcarra had 77% approval and only 21% disapproval. That was up from 60% in October.
I have not yet seen a credible poll with approval ratings for President Francisco Sagasti, though the general sense is that he is considered an acceptable interim president by a majority of the population.
Ipsos published some poll results from late October, before the recent political crisis. The poll shows 67% of people were dissatisfied with Peru’s democratic system but only 23% believed that an authoritarian government is needed.
The poll results were intended to show how youth view the political system, but on nearly all issues, the opinions of the 18-25 year old crowd match those of the general population (two issues where they don’t: civil unions and abortion).
Mexico - Polls show support for AMLO and mixed opinions about Covid-19 responses
Buendia and Laredo has AMLO’s approval rating at 64%, but satisfaction with his government at 52%. The poll shows 59% of the population approves of how AMLO has handled the pandemic but only 22% believe that the government should continue its current strategy while 75% while modifications of adjustments.
Reforma finds a similarly confusing set of responses, with 49% saying the government has followed the correct strategy while 67% say the government does not have the situation under control. Additionally, 54% say they would support non-essential economic activity again. A similar number, 54% of Mexicans saying they no longer fear catching the virus.
Venezuela - Majority of the country does not like any living political leaders
A Datanalisis poll in October shows 62% of the country does not approve of the Maduro regime or its opponents. Juan Guaido has 27% approval. He remains the most popular living politician in the country. Nicolas Maduro has 14% approval.
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There will be no newsletter tomorrow. For those celebrating this week, have a happy Thanksgiving.