I cover recent polls every Wednesday. If you want to be added to the newsletter distribution list, please enter your email at https://boz.substack.com/ or email me at boz@substack.com and I will add you.
Three items today:
Chile - Constitutional referendum this weekend
Mexico - INEGI survey of security perceptions shows improvements during pandemic
Costa Rica - Mixed opinions on protests
Chile - Constitutional referendum this weekend
The general consensus among analysts is that Chile’s constitutional referendum will pass this Sunday. Polling over the course of several years suggests Chileans want constitutional reform. That polling was particularly convincing last year as the protest movement began and was widely supported by the population.
However, polling in recent weeks is limited and late movement in public opinion may not be captured in the polls. There has been a sustained “no” campaign that is trying to mobilize moderate and conservative voters against the constitutional reforms.
The other factor of uncertainty is the pandemic. The portion of the population planning to vote in the referendum ranges from 60-85%, but voter turnout could come in significantly lower. Many voters express concern about the spread of the disease due to the campaign.
It is not clear who that lower turnout would help. I can imagine a turnout model that drives the approval for a new constitution well above 80% and I can imagine one where it drops below 60%. There is simply too little polling in recent weeks and not enough certainty about which voters will show up amid the health crisis.
A poll from several weeks ago by Encuesta Criteria showed 72% approval for a new constitution, the same as it has been for most of the year. The same poll showed 59% supporting a newly elected constitutional convention as opposed to a mixed convention that includes current members of Congress.
That 8-15 point gap between support for a new constitution and support for newly elected convention has been seen in other polls as well. It could become important if the referendum passes with less than 60% support.
The Criteria poll had Piñera at 22% approval, 70% disapproval
Above: Chart of presidential approval ratings from Criteria.
The committee that is organizing the no vote claims they have an internal poll showing there is only an eight point gap between the two sides. However, always be wary of internal polls from campaign groups.
Cadem’s weekly poll has Piñera back down to 16% approval after having him above 20% for much of September and early October. They did not publish polling results about the constitutional referendum this week.
The Cadem poll shows support for continued protests remains around the 50% mark, down from last year but still relatively high.
Mexico - INEGI survey of security perceptions shows improvements during pandemic
The INEGI published its survey of urban security perceptions. 68% of the population believes that they live in an unsafe city. That is down a few points from similar surveys in March 2020 and September 2019
Alejandro Hope writes that the biggest shift is that the number of people who report that someone in their home had been a recent victim of a crime dropped to 22% from 35% in the second half of 2019. That’s almost certainly due to the pandemic causing more people to remain inside and businesses to be closed.
With that in mind, we should not expect these improved numbers to be sustained in future surveys.
Costa Rica - Mixed opinions on protests
73% of respondents to a poll from Enfoques Estudios de Opinión said they agree with the reasons behind the recent protests. However, 62% could not name a single group or leader behind the protests and 82% had never heard of Movimiento Rescate Nacional, the main organizing group.
Only 50% said the government should negotiate with protesters. 80% said they agreed with the statement that people have a right to protest but not to block roads. 44% said that those who blocked roads should be prosecuted.
General takeaway: A large number of Costa Ricans are angry about the current economic conditions but they are also opposed to the disruptions the recent protests caused and did not support the specific groups protesting.
Thanks for reading
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