Politics and Polls - 2 September 2020
Tensions in Argentina's Congress; new polls in Mexico and Chile
Three topics in today’s update:
Argentina - Congressional tensions over virtual sessions
Mexico - Reforma poll shows AMLO losing on the issues
Chile - Constitutional referendum launches
I plan to continue covering polls and other political issues every Wednesday. Feedback and links to new polls are always appreciated. You can email me at boz@substack.com.
Argentina - Congressional tensions over virtual sessions
Last night, the lower house of the Congress led by Sergio Massa voted to remain in virtual session over the objections of Juntos por el Cambio, the leading opposition bloc. This will allow the bloc supporting President Fernandez to debate and potentially pass bills related to taxes, judicial reform and debt restructuring.
This situation is developing, but there are two possible repercussions if the tensions continue.
First, this will increase disagreements over the judicial reform, which many Fernandez opponents view as politicized. They now believe that Fernandez’s allies are trying to pass the bill through a Congress that shouldn’t be in session. This could lead to more protests in the coming weeks and could serve as a talking point in the midterm elections next year.
Second, Congressional approval of any debt deals is important for their long term legitimacy. If a large portion of Fernandez’s opposition feels that debt deals occurred while the Congress was illegitimately in session, it could impact how those debt deals are viewed years later when the payments come due.
Mexico - Reforma poll shows AMLO losing on the issues
This poll was on the front page of Reforma this week:
Reforma’s topline number for President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador says 56% approve and 41% disapprove.
The approve/disapprove numbers are close to the other major polls published this month (El Financiero is 59/40, El Universal is 53/36, Buendia y Laredo is 59/28, El Economista is 54/44).
The fact that this poll says the same thing as the others and the fact most presidents in the hemisphere would appreciate numbers over 50% didn’t stop AMLO from criticizing the poll as “spoiled.” He pushed his own poll showing 64% approve of him and 70% would vote to keep him in office in a hypothetical revocation referendum.
One reason AMLO is obsessed with the polls are the upcoming midterm elections next year. He also plans a revocation referendum on his mandate which is likely to occur in 2022 but he may still try to push up to 2021. The president has also said he is planning a referendum on whether to prosecute previous presidents for corruption, hoping he can boost his own popularity and diminish his opponents in the process.
Beyond those top line numbers, one of the things that upset AMLO was the fact that the poll shows the president with very poor ratings when citizens are asked about specific issues. Every issue is net negative except education. On fighting organized crime, only 26% say AMLO has done well while 49% say he has done poorly.
Reforma shows AMLO’s Morena winning the legislative vote. However, the 43% support that Morena receives is now essentially tied with the combined total of the PAN and PRI, both of which have gained about five percent in recent months. This helps explain why AMLO is spending so much time attacking his political opponents.
One more polling note in Mexico. While AMLO claims 70% would vote to keep him in office, a recent poll in El Financiero says the number of people who would vote to remove AMLO from office has risen to 39%.
Chile - Constitutional referendum campaign begins
Approval for rewriting a constitution is almost guaranteed if the vote happens in October. The issue now is making sure enough people show up to vote during the pandemic. Polling from Cadem shows 62% plan to vote, down by 28% since the coronavirus crisis began. Nearly half of voters believe that the referendum should be postponed due to the crisis.
The polling shows over 90% support for constitutional guarantees of education and healthcare. But there is also widespread support for constitutional rights to private property, something being pushed by rightwing parties who have realized that the rewrite is inevitable and are now angling to get their own issues within the new document.
The other interesting number from Cadem is that a narrow plurality of the population now opposes additional protests, a change from several months ago.
Thanks for reading
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