I cover recent polls every Wednesday. If you want to be added to the newsletter distribution list, please enter your email at https://boz.substack.com/ or email me at boz@substack.com and I will add you.
Three items today:
Peru - Sagasti starts strong
Mexico - AMLO’s popularity rising again
Argentina - Mixed numbers for Fernandez
Peru - Sagasti starts strong
Francisco Sagasti has 72% approval according to CPI. Those are very positive numbers (much more so than Merino), but they are also based only on a first impression. Most Peruvians likely did not have a strong opinion on the new president prior to a few weeks ago and have seen only a few actions from him so far. Sagasti seems to be embracing his role as interim president, focusing on short term issues and leaving the bigger questions including a potential constitutional reform for a future elected administration that will hopefully have a popular mandate and greater political capital.
One recent controversy in Peru is the announcement that former President Martin Vizcarra is running for Congress. Vizcarra spent his presidency very critical of the immunity given to members of Congress. If elected, he could be a primary beneficiary of that immunity. Vizcarra will likely find some way to use that potential hypocrisy to his political advantage, promising to vote to remove immunity on himself in spite of the legal risk to demonstrate his anti-corruption bonafides.
Julio Guzman, whose Partido Morado opposed the removal of Vizcarra from office and now controls the presidency, was particularly critical of the former president’s running for Congress in place of standing trial for corruption.
Polls show Vizcarra was popular and Peruvians wanted him to finish his term as president. However, those same polls said that Peruvians are upset at corruption and wanted Vizcarra to be investigated once out of office. So it’s not yet clear how citizens will react to Vizcarra’s congressional candidacy.
Mexico - AMLO’s popularity rising again
New polls from Reforma and El Financiero show AMLO’s approval rating increasing five points since the previous poll, giving him over 60% approval.
The polls tell a similar story. In Reforma’s poll, only 30% give AMLO positive ratings on his management of the economy and 21% say he has done a good job on security issues. El Financiero’s poll shows 28% approve of his efforts on security and 25% approve of AMLO on the economy.
So if a majority of Mexicans disapprove of AMLO’s actions on the country’s two biggest issues, how is his approval rating so high? I get that question as least once per month from someone.
AMLO’s strengths are his support for social programs and a general level of trust that Mexicans place in him. His personal approval ratings in terms of his ability to connect with the population and make people believe he cares about their issues has helped him avoid a drop in the polls.
Above: From El Financiero, AMLO’s approval ratings are positive, but they are also exactly where Felipe Calderon’s ratings were at the two year mark.
According to Reforma, 44% plan to vote for Morena while the PRI and PAN each have about 18% of the vote.
Argentina - Mixed numbers for Fernandez
Celag has Alberto Fernandez at 58% approval. That’s one of the higher current numbers for Argentina’s president while most other polls have his approval rating at or below the 50% mark. For example, a recently published Management and Fitch poll says Fernandez has 41% approval and 38% disapproval.
Both Management and Fitch and Giacobbe have recent polls suggesting that most Argentines want to vote for opponents of Fernandez in the upcoming midterm elections. However, asking about “opponents of Fernandez” masks the very divided opposition to the president. Fernandez’s opponents are not trying to unite and will likely split up that anti-Fernandez vote.
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Have a good afternoon!