I cover recent polls every Wednesday. If you want to be added to the newsletter distribution list, please enter your email at https://boz.substack.com/ or email me at boz@substack.com and I will add you.
Two items today:
Peru - Lots of polls but little certainty
Brazil - Bolsonaro ends the year more popular than he started it
Peru - Lots of polls but little certainty
Datum says President Francisco Sagasti has 46% approval and 27% disapproval. That same poll shows 72% disapproval for the Congress.
Ipsos has Sagasti at 44% approval, 35% disapproval. They also have Congress at 20% approval and 77% disapproval.
Datum’s most recent poll shows a majority of voters in Peru still don’t know who they are voting for in next year’s presidential elections or plan to cast a protest vote. That poll has George Forsyth with 10% support and nobody else in double digits.
One detail from the Datos poll caught my attention: Former President Martin Vizcarra has 56% approval for his run for Congress, an incredibly high number that suggests he may remain the most influential politician in the country.
Ipsos has Forsyth at 18% and nobody else in double digits. That poll has 36% who are undecided or casting protest votes.
IEP has Forsyth at 15% and (you guessed it!), nobody else in double digits.
While it’s tempting to portray Forsyth as the frontrunner with these numbers, his support is low and the margin of his lead over the large pack of other challengers is only barely outside the margin of error. It would not take much of a political shift for one or two other candidates to move to the front of the polls in the coming months.
Two other interesting data points from the IEP poll. First:
I’m not sure how to read that increase in support for the ideological edges, but I will add that the numbers I’ve seen show rejection of specific right-wing candidates (i.e. Keiko Fujimori) is growing while rejection of the left appears to be more about rejection of ideology (the left would say a mischaracterization of their ideology) than dislike or distrust of specific people.
Next:
IEP says that their April poll showed 88% approval for the Peruvian National Police. That number has dropped by half to 44% in their most recent poll, with 55% disapproving. The police are accused of violence and corruption during the anti-government protests last month.
Brazil - Bolsonaro ends the year more popular than he started it
Datafolha published its final poll of the year showing President Jair Bolsonaro with 37% support for his government and 32% saying his government is bad or terrible. Over half of Brazilians say that the president deserves no blame for the spread of coronavirus or the number of deaths that have occurred.
Looking at the mishandling of Covid, political challenges and corruption scandals, Ishaan Tharoor writes, “That none of this has cratered Bolsonaro’s presidency is both a reflection of his particular appeal as well as Brazil’s pronounced political divisions.”
On top of all the obvious problems Bolsonaro faces going into 2021, the clustering and enthusiasm of his opposition should not be discounted. The prersident is less popular in Brazil’s largest urban areas and his allies lost a majority of the recent mayoral elections. Bolsonaro’s opponents may currently be in the minority nationwide, but they can be a disruptive and influential majority in areas where the president needs stability so that the economy can grow.
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Have a good afternoon!