Political risk didn't take the holidays off
Comments on recent events in Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela
Happy New Year! I had a nice two week vacation to Chile in which I unplugged from Twitter and focused on glaciers, volcanos, whitewater rafting, condors, and penguins. I'm sure nothing important has happened in Latin America over the holidays while I've been offline....
Brazil - My column for World Politics Review this week describes Bolsonaro's post-election performance as a final embarrassment on top of the failures across his entire term in office. On Sunday, thousands of pro-Bolsonaro protesters finally made the attempt to invade government buildings. But, at this late stage a week after Lula was inaugurated president, there was no strategy and no hope for success. The violence, instead of being strategic, was essentially a catharsis for the many who had hoped for some bigger plot that would succeed. It's horrifying, but it's not a risk to Lula's ability to govern moving forward other than the fact that it creates a giant distraction that he doesn't really need. The violence also solidified Lula’s support abroad, with various regional leaders and international organizations repudiating the attacks on Brazil’s democratic processes.
Brazil's democratic institutions need to demonstrate a solid response to this event and they will.
Bolsonaro was shameless in suggesting that he idolized Trump. But while Trump still wields significant influence in the Republican Party, Brazil's former president will likely find himself divided from his previous allies over the violence this past weekend.
There will be a particular focus in the coming weeks on the role of social media, messaging apps, and conspiracy theories that are at least in part based around those begun by US groups and organizers.
There is likely to be further violence. A very small extremist group of Bolsonaro supporters will continue to attempt to derail the Lula government. But they're losing support, not gaining it, and their threats are tactical, not strategic.
Mexico - When Mexican forces detained Ovidio Guzmán in 2019, the rapid and violent response from the Sinaloa Cartel forced the government to release him. Last week, Ovidio was detained again and moved to Mexico City before word could spread. At least 29 people died during the operation that involved over 3,000 military personnel, according to the Mexican government.
There are different lines of analysis about the detention of Ovidio. A few thoughts here:
This was a symbolic move intended to placate the US and Canada who feel AMLO has not done enough to improve security and stop the production and trafficking of fentanyl. With Biden and Trudeau in Mexico this week, the timing of this high profile arrest seems more than coincidental.
With the Sinaloa Cartel facing an internal leadership dispute, the Mexican government managed to pick off the weakest of the leadership and may have helped simplify the complex leadership structure.
It's not clear who made the call about detaining Ovidio, but it's possible that AMLO wasn't totally in the loop about the events and was even caught off guard by the detention and the violent response that followed. There are some interesting implications if this is true. It means someone in the security forces wanted action but knew the president's involvement could hamper its success.
In response to the embarrassment of the arrest, the Sinaloa Cartel may attempt a response to hit the Mexican government hard where it counts: Mexico City. However, they likely don't have the personnel or resources immediately in place, meaning nothing imminent should be expected. They are also a reasonably patient group that may be willing to spend months to make sure their response is done correctly. In the months to come, keep in mind that the CJNG already crossed that red line with very little pushback and the Sinaloa Cartel has no reason to believe AMLO has the political will to respond more harshly against them.
Mexico continues to face an incredibly tough paradox between the following two points:
a. The kingpin strategy - in which high level cartel leaders are targeted - doesn't reduce violence and may even increase violence
b. Impunity for crime and violence leads to more crime and violence
Peru - The political crisis slowed down over the holidays but is once again ramping up in January. At least 17 people were killed in protests in southern Peru yesterday. The Boluarte government appears in denial about the severity of the violence being caused by state security forces' attempts to repress the protests. As we’ve seen across all Latin American protests, violence by security forces tends to escalate the problems. If the government’s only solution is repression, the situation will worsen.
Venezuela - Juan Guaidó is no longer the de facto president of Venezuela. The opposition coalition voted to end his term and change their management structure.
The opposition disunity and infighting is their typical form. As one friend has said repeatedly for the past two decades "it's why they're still 'the opposition'." And the mismanagement of this transition is good political news for Maduro. There is no way to massage this mess into something that is positive for Maduro's opponents.
At the same time, while Maduro's political position appears quite solid, even better than he started in 2022, the economy is faltering. The "economic boom" that exists on paper and is likely to create growth for businesses investing in the country in the coming years isn't being felt by the average population. There are protests over inflation and the fact that most people without access to dollars can't afford to live.
Maduro will attempt to keep his main political opponents under pressure in the coming year, starting with ordering the arrests of those who replaced Guaidó (they are all outside of Venezuela). Keeping them divided and fighting each other is his best chance for maintaining control while the population has turned against all political leaders.
Thanks for reading.
Here’s a picture of penguins.