Peru’s political crisis - September 2020

Vizcarra is winning the public opinion battle. Peru’s long term stability is losing.

For the second time in less than a year, Peru’s Congress will be voting on whether to remove the president this week.

In late September 2019, President Martin Vizcarra dissolved the Congress and called for new legislative elections. The Congress refused to leave session and voted to suspend Vizcarra’s presidency and name Vice President Mercedes Araoz the acting president. The military sided with Vizcarra. It swiftly became apparent that Vizcarra was the winner of the constitutional crisis. The courts would later confirm the legality of Vizcarra’s call for new legislative elections. 

One year later, a new fragmented legislature is in place, VP Araoz has resigned, the country is six months away from general elections, and the Congress is once again threatening to toss Vizcarra out of office.

This time, the stated reason for wanting to remove Vizcarra is over obstruction of a congressional investigation. Earlier this year, Peru’s Congress looked into a very minor scandal involving a singer, Richard Cisneros, who received contracts with the Ministry of Culture. Last week, tapes indicated that Vizcarra had told his staff to lie to the Congress about the number of times Cisneros visited the presidential palace. Vizcarra’s opponents in Congress saw the tapes as an opportunity and voted almost immediately to begin proceedings to potentially remove the president over his moral failings. Vizcarra has filed an injunction with the Constitutional Court to halt the proceedings. Peru’s Congress will hold its next vote on removing Vizcarra on Friday.

The real reason Congress wants to remove Vizcarra is that he is the most sustainably popular Peruvian president in the post-Fujimori era and that makes him a serious powerbroker moving forward.

The success or failure of impeachment processes (not technically impeachment under Peru’s constitution, but I use the term anyway) is never about the facts in the case or the details of the legal briefs. It’s about politics. It doesn’t matter whether Vizcarra lied or whether the lies meet the constitutional threshold for removing the president. All that matters is whether enough members of Congress believe it will be in their political best interest to remove the Vizcarra prior to next year’s elections.

Vizcarra is winning the public opinion battle and retains the support of the military

To the extent the details of the controversy matter, it is in the battle over public opinion. Vizcarra has long benefited by appearing as an outsider who is willing to take on corrupt political interests. Vizcarra’s opponents would like for some corruption allegation to stick to the president in order to reduce his outsider appeal. They sense weakness now as Peru is among the highest number of deaths per capita in the world from Covid-19 and is experiencing one of the largest economic downturns in the region. 

Unfortunately for Vizcarra’s opponents, a poll published by Ipsos shows only 19% of the public believes Vizcarra should be removed from office while 79% believe he should finish his term. The president retains a 57% approval rating.

One detail that makes this a more difficult situation than last year’s crisis is that Manuel Merino, the head of the Congress, is the person who would replace Vizcarra due to the lack of a vice president. Any time the person who would replace the president in an impeachment process wants the president removed, it makes the situation more volatile. That person has different incentives for driving the process.

Above: President Vizcarra is briefed by military commanders about the pandemic response. Various recent social media posts have highlighted the military’s cooperation with the president, something that is probably related to the political crisis.

Manuel Merino reached out to military commanders last week to inform them that impeachment and removal of the president would move swiftly. The military commanders informed the minister of defense and Merino’s calls became public, embarrassing the head of the Congress. The fact the military continues to support Vizcarra suggests that any attempt to remove the president that does not 100% follow the legal process laid out in the constitution will fail. 

The Congress will likely vote on motion to censure Merino and his own job may be in jeopardy in the coming weeks. Ipsos reports that Merino’s approval rating is only 19% while his disapproval rating is 72%. That’s a 21% increase in his disapproval rating in the past month. 

If Vizcarra survives the vote later this week, there is good reason to believe he emerges from this controversy strengthened. As I wrote in June, Peru’s president thrives on political conflict. Throughout his brief term in office, President Martin Vizcarra has taken advantage of every controversy and moment of crisis to boost his approval rating just as it threatened to fall under 50%. 

If Vizcarra is removed by the Congress, he may still be able to turn that into an advantage. With elections six months away, Vizcarra would transition from lame duck to potential kingmaker given the fact he remains Peru’s most popular politician.

2021 and beyond are unlikely to be more stable

The current outlook for the 2021 elections suggests another divided vote leading to a fragmented Congress. The next president is likely to lack a governing majority in the Congress. Additionally, the case against Vizcarra this week suggests a further weakening of the standards on which Congress challenges the president’s remaining in office. That sets a precedent moving forward that will likely mean more executive-legislative showdowns that threaten to cut terms short and remove people from power.

The past few years have seen three attempted presidential removals by the Congress, a presidential resignation, a vice presidential resignation, multiple prime ministers lose votes of no confidence, a change in the length of the presidential term, snap elections for the Congress, multiple current and former politicians face potential jail time for corruption charges, and one former president commiting suicide. 

It’s safe to say that the least likely scenario for the next president is a stable few years with no political upheaval.

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