Nicaragua - Threats of a new round of repression
Ortega used a speech on Nicaragua's independence day to threaten his political opponents
In a combative speech to celebrate Nicaragua’s independence day, Daniel Ortega threatened to change the country’s laws so that his political opponents can be jailed for life instead of just three decades.
Ortega moves back and forth between releasing hundreds of political prisoners and engaging in new rounds of targeted repression and state terrorism. His tone has shifted in recent week towards repression again, with the de facto president threatening that there will be no additional amnesties granted if his opponents continue to organize against him.
Above: Ortega speaks at an event on 15 September
Ortega had the blue and white Nicaraguan flag in the background of his speech this week along with the red and black FSLN party flag that is the de facto flag of his regime. Police have recently harassed and detained people waving or selling the blue and white flag, which has become a symbol of Ortega’s opposition.
Though censorship has been harsh for years, Ortega has also increased his attacks on local media outlets in recent weeks. His regime shut down Channel 12 and seized its equipment, claiming the channel has failed to pay a half million dollars in back taxes.
One local activist warned that he believes the recent speeches by Ortega and his wife signal that they will be detaining additional political prisoners in the near future and using the pressure on media outlets as a negotiating position both domestically and internationally.
Conditions around the country continue to deteriorate
Conditions in Nicaragua have worsened in recent months. There is increasing hunger among a population that has reduced its economic activity in spite of government denials of a health crisis. Higher electricity prices are making life difficult for many Nicaraguans who remain at home.
Violent crime rates are rising with higher numbers of murders, robberies and extortions reported by private sector organizations that still operate in the country. Some of these attacks appear linked to paramilitary gangs aligned with the Ortega regime. A source in Nicaragua speculated that these gangs have increased their robberies because they are receiving fewer resources from Ortega, whose government is having a harder time making ends meet.
As has been reported elsewhere, the health sector has been hit hard by Covid-19. The Ortega regime has actively covered up the numbers of cases in the country and harassed or fired doctors and nurses who have attempted to report the true levels of cases or the problems that have occurred within hospitals.
The government claims fewer than 150 people have died of the virus, but it’s fairly clear they have been classifying Covid-19 deaths under other categories. Independent monitors count over 2,700 deaths and even that number is likely to be an undercount of the actual spread of the virus.
Eyes on the 2021 elections
Ortega’s renewed repression threats are likely sparked by his own declining approval ratings and the threat of his opposition organizing in the coming year. While the opposition coalition remains quite disorganized at the moment, they do appear on the path towards presenting a unified strategy to take on Ortega in the elections scheduled for November 2021.
Ortega’s repression is trying to divide his opponents and pressure some or all of his political opponents to preemptively announce that they will boycott the election. Stealing an election against a united opposition requires resources that the Ortega regime increasingly lacks and opens up the potential for the regime to make mistakes. While conditions are unlikely to be fair under any circumstances, it would be a whole lot easier for Ortega to steal the election if his opponents are divided and some opposition politicians refuse to participate (see Venezuela).
The fact that both Ortega and his opponents are focused on an event one year from now, even as day to day life today is so difficult and getting worse, is a sign of just how entrenched and stable the current regime is.
Three other notes
Sanctions have changed behavior in the sense that they’ve forced Ortega and his allies to find new ways to launder and hide money they’ve stolen. But current sanctions and the threat of more sanctions have not successfully improved Nicaragua’s conditions or created divisions within Ortega’s regime. While the individuals who have committed serious human rights abuses absolutely deserve to be sanctioned as punishment for their actions, policymakers and analysts should not expect additional sanctions to successfully move the regime towards better behavior or push them out. A new strategy is needed.
Ortega is benefiting from the other authoritarian and corruption issues in Central America and the global challenges associated with coronavirus. It’s much easier for Ortega to resist pressure related to his authoritarian behavior while presidents in the Northern Triangle engage in similar behavior. Nicaragua, never a priority, has moved even lower on the international agenda with the global recession, the health crisis, and a much worse humanitarian crisis in Venezuela. Barring a return to a large protest movement as occurred in 2018, the country is unlikely to get much attention in the coming months.
One weird thing: During his speech this week, Ortega sidetracked to lash out criminals who target minors for rape and murder. While he didn’t mention it directly, the comments appeared to be a nod at the QAnon conspiracy, which is moving around the globe in unexpected ways. Like many politicians who have provided cover for QAnon, Ortega has his own history of sexual assault and appears to be projecting as he accuses others of similar crimes. I’m not sure what Ortega is attempting, if anything, with these comments, but it’s worth monitoring.
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