Nicaragua - Switching recognition to Beijing
China is pulling key Central American allies away from Taiwan, adding to Chinese leverage in the Western Hemisphere.
Nicaragua announced last week that it is switching recognition from Taipei to Beijing. For the second time in history, the government of Daniel Ortega has turned Nicaragua into an ally of Beijing. It’s long been expected and even somewhat surprising that it did not happen earlier.
Honduras is likely next. Xiomara Castro promised to change Honduras’s recognition to Beijing as president. Whether she does so immediately or waits a year to play her cards with both the US and Taiwan in an effort to smooth the transition is not clear.
There are clear economic benefits for Ortega in making this switch. China has already sent Covid assistance to Nicaragua as part of the deal.
The potential for a Nicaragua canal is not a concern. It was never a serious project. That said, there were a number of infrastructure projects that were intended to be done in the “canal zone” and those may now move forward even if the canal never happens.
In that sense, I thought this point from Evan Ellis about infrastructure projects in the region was a strong one:
”In economic terms, if Honduras joins Nicaragua and El Salvador in recognizing the PRC, its decision will create synergies for PRC-driven logistics projects around the Gulf of Fonseca, improving the chances for a new port at La Unión, the improved dry canal corridor from Tigre Island to the Atlantic Coast of Honduras, and a connection to Nicaragua.”
The timing of the announcement is certainly related to the democracy summit organized by the Biden administration. China is looking for a way to demonstrate their leverage in the hemisphere in the face of the US coordinating democracies. They also want to punish Taiwan for attending and the US for inviting Taiwan to attend.
Meanwhile, China’s actions in Lithuania should be a top concern for countries of the hemisphere. While the opening of a representative office in Vilnius by Taiwan is the latest point of contention, Lithuania has a demonstrated pattern of countering Chinese geopolitical aims. China is now trying to convince European companies to boycott Lithuania from their supply chains or face being excluded from Chinese markets. This recent squabble shows that partnerships formed with China are rarely a union of equals.
China offers some very kind incentives to countries considering recognizing Beijing, but they pull out heavy sticks to any countries that currently recognize them and threaten to move even the slightest bit out of line from that position.