Nicaragua and Honduras - Alliance of kleptocrats
Ortega and JOH aren't ideological allies, but they can still benefit by working together.
Daniel Ortega and Juan Orlando Hernandez met last week. This was notable because:
Most world leaders have avoided meeting with Ortega and his government after the violent crackdown in 2018. But not JOH, who continues to embrace Ortega as a colleague.
Their partnership occurs in spite of an ideological divide between the two. Many analysts would classify Ortega as leftwing and Hernandez as rightwing. Ortega actively opposes US influence in the region. Hernandez has tried to portray himself as a key ally of the US during his time in office, though US officials have slowly come to the realization that he’s a corrupt criminal and working with him is probably not in the best interests of the US.
Ortega is rarely seen in public these days. He’s in poor health. The fact he attended this very public meeting is not a common occurrence.
Both Nicaragua and Honduras have elections this month. Nicaragua’s election is a complete sham while Honduras’s remains to be seen given Hernandez’s stealing the presidency in 2017.
While it doesn’t appear to be related, the ruling parties in both countries are running disinformation campaigns during the election. Facebook announced it halted a large troll farm in Nicaragua while Rest of the World reported on social media propaganda efforts in Honduras.
The stated justification for the meeting was to sign a maritime border treaty about the Gulf of Fonseca in which it appears Nicaragua supports Honduras’s position in the territorial dispute with El Salvador. The two countries are also coordinating covid vaccinations along the border.
Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele was furious at the meeting. He obviously disagrees with the content of the treaty. He tweeted out an attack on US hypocrisy, pointing out that the US would be much more critical of the meeting if Bukele was meeting and providing support to Ortega instead of Hernandez.
Separate from the El Salvador dispute, the unstated reason for the meeting was to demonstrate some semblance of unity between the Nicaraguan and Honduran presidents as the two de facto leaders expect some rough months ahead following their respective elections.
What does Ortega want? He wants to demonstrate that Nicaragua is not internationally isolated by the pressure and sanctions that he faces. Honduras was among the countries to abstain from a recent OAS vote on Nicaragua (Guatemala, Mexico and Argentina abstained as well). Having stronger relations with his northern neighbor gives Ortega economic support to survive sanctions as well some demonstrated diplomatic backing that goes beyond his traditional leftwing allies.
By creating a temporary alliance with Hernandez, Ortega may have built himself a win-win situation. If Xiomara Castro pulls off a victory in Honduras, her government is likely to back Ortega as well.
What does Hernandez want? JOH may be looking for leverage with the US government. If he can influence Ortega, then he remains useful even if his party loses the election. Hernandez is a savvy political operator. He understands the US political system and has spent years convincing lawmakers and officials that he is a true ally in the region. With the evidence of Hernandez’s corruption and drug trafficking growing, demonstrating he has connections to influence Ortega can be yet another point of leverage in the US to influence the situation and gain an advantage.
Separately, analysts told Confidencial that Hernandez was potentially looking for a location that will provide him refuge should his party lose the Honduran election and if there is an attempt to extradite him to the United States. One risk would be that a Castro/Libre government in Honduras could demand Hernandez’s extradition to prosecute him on corruption locally, but that hypothetical is something JOH can worry about later. For now, Hernandez’s best bet is to build options for leverage and escape should he need them.
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