Mexico's military takes out El Mencho
Nine points on the big blow to the CJNG leadership.
The Mexican military, with intelligence support from the US, took out El Mencho (Nemesio Oseguera), the leader of the CJNG. “Took out” is going to be the term I use, because the official story is that El Mencho was wounded during the arrest operation and died while being transported.
Operational success - Targeting El Mencho was a complicated operation, the sort where the Mexican military often failed in the past due to leaks and other challenges posed by the security systems of the top cartel leaders. There are reasons El Mencho was able to operate without being captured or killed for well over a decade. Yesterday’s success speaks to focused and well-trained security forces, and perhaps to improvements under Sheinbaum compared to the AMLO era.
Rare political fumble - Sheinbaum and her team seemed unprepared for the initial fallout from the arrest. Early in the day, the president was holding an economic-related event and did not seem to have her talking points together on the security situation. I expect her to be more on top of it today, but I also wonder what caught her team off guard.
Mexico’s leadership - The Trump administration was quicker and more forceful in taking credit than Sheinbaum because they really want to demonstrate a bold anti-cartel strategy. However, I don’t think this operation happened because of US pressure. As I wrote on Twitter, I think this operation was more about the policies of Sheinbaum and her security minister, Omar Garcia Harfuch, than about Trump.
The CJNG attempted to assassinate Harfuch in a bold attack in Mexico City back in 2020, and he held a special grudge against the group that meant he was always going to want to target its leadership. I’m sure the US pressure and support played some role in the timing and how it all went down, but this was about Mexico far more than the US.
US support - Officials in both Mexico and the US seemed to be speaking from the same cautious talking points about the US providing support but not being in a leading role. The acknowledgement of US support without direct involvement seemed to be a good position for all sides. It allows both governments to take a victory lap without stepping on each other’s red lines. It also demonstrates that success can come without unilateral US military operations, lowering the odds for a US strike in the near future.
Taking out a kingpin ≠ a Kingpin Strategy - The death of El Mencho sparked a swift debate about the failures of previous strategies to take down cartel leaders. At this point, few people believe that Mexico’s criminal organizations can be dismantled by a top-down approach that focuses on removing key leaders. That tends to cause fragmentation and greater violence.
At the same time, it would be dangerous and wrong to argue that the Mexican government should therefore leave kingpins in place. Mexico’s biggest problems include a tolerance for corrupt actors and impunity for crimes. El Mencho deserved to be taken out. Doing so does not mean that Sheinbaum or Harfuch believe that taking him out solves Mexico’s security problems. They are more thoughtful than that.
El Mencho’s violent response. Everyone knew El Mencho had a plan for the day he was taken out. Previous attacks against him and top CJNG leadership had often led to significant violence, including a famous incident in 2015 in which a military helicopter was shot down by the cartel.
Yesterday, there were hundreds of violent events (blockades, checkpoints, arson, shootings) across 20 states in Mexico. The violent attack on Guadalajara’s airport was particularly jarring. It was the single largest and most coordinated series of violent attacks I’ve ever seen in Mexico. Note that even if there were violent incidents in 20 states, most of it was concentrated in four states, with Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta being the two hardest hit cities. It was a demonstration of the CJNG’s territorial spread and influence, but not of its territorial control.
Serious deterrence or a cartel temper tantrum? - And then the violence was done. Within hours, most of those violent events had finished. One day of chaos, no matter how bad, is simple. If that’s all there is, then El Mencho’s response is not much of a deterrence strategy. The big question is whether the CJNG leader had a plan for the months after. Will the CJNG try to target the political and military leadership that hit El Mencho as a form or retribution, or will they be too caught up in their own internal struggles?
Succession or civil war? - As I’ve noted in previous Mexico updates, most of the country has seen security improvements under Sheinbaum, but the state of Sinaloa has been a mess due to the violent fight that has divided the cartel that used to run that state. It’s not clear whether the CJNG will see a clean succession or a similarly messy, violent internal rift among its leadership.
Monitoring that question is probably the single biggest indicator for how Mexico’s security situation evolves in the coming months. A clean succession would mean a continuation of the status quo ante in which Sheinbaum was seeing security improvements. A messy CJNG divide would increase violence in several states, including Jalisco, Guanajuato, and Michoacan.
No matter which scenario, don’t fall victim to the security paranoia. Yesterday’s violence was bad. In fact, just two paragraphs ago, I called it the “largest and most coordinated series of violent attacks I’ve ever seen in Mexico.” Yet, it was just a day to shelter in place during the cartel temper tantrum, not a major strategic shift or reason to panic and change all your long term personal or business plans. The perception of violence yesterday was worsened by some uninformed hype, disinfo, and even some AI-generated fake images on social media.
It’s a mistake to read too much into a single day of violent images and news. While there may be a few more incidents today, and a CJNG divide would increase violence over the months to come, the worst is likely over. This week, Mexico will go back to “normal.” The World Cup should be fine. I think it’s as safe to travel to Mexico next week as it was last week.
As counterintuitive as the images of violence make it, Mexico is worse off when the bad guys are allowed to operate with impunity and corrupt the system in exchange for a bit of false peace. If anything, this operation is another piece of evidence to suggest Sheinbaum is having some success in her security efforts.