The NYT and the AP have articles about Mexico’s disappeared, an issue that raises questions about whether and how much of the homicide reduction under President Claudia Sheinbaum is real.
On the energy front, there was a major oil spill off the Gulf coast and several large fires and accidents at Dos Bocas refinery. Fuel prices are up in Mexico, though the government has somewhat limited the price spike. Now Sheinbaum is talking about fracking as a way to reduce US imports. While reducing imports and improving gas prices could be a popular policy in the long term, the debate of fracking makes it a less popular short term move.
The Baker Institute has a long article about Mexico’s various economic challenges. That includes low economic growth over the past decades, highlighting that it has slowed even further under AMLO and Sheinbaum. On Tuesday, I noted that the IMF continues to show Mexico’s GDP growth lagging.
The articles above point to reasons Sheinbaum may lose popularity. And yet, polling suggests that she remains among the most popular leaders in Latin America. The March El Financiero poll showed Sheinbaum with 70% approval. Most polls still having her over 60% approval, numbers that any president would be happy with at the current moment.
In recent weeks, I’ve received multiple reader questions about why Sheinbaum remains popular. Some people ask about it generally, while others cite specific reasons she might lose popularity, including the issues listed above and the very visible violence that occurred after the death of El Mencho. In somewhat rough draft form, here are some notes as to how I’ve thought about the question:
Sheinbaum is the right balance of populist and technocrat. She has continued AMLO’s daily press conference, something that is shockingly effective and allows her to control the public narrative and agenda. Meanwhile, she exudes a professional competence at her job that AMLO rarely managed. She has surrounded herself with intelligent people who also communicate well. She is successfully pushing her agenda through the legislature, which adds to the image of effectiveness.
She is the Trump whisperer and voters are grading her on a curve given the Trump challenge. Sheinbaum saw her numbers improve in 2025 as she managed the threats of tariffs and military strikes coming from the US administration. Voters largely approve of how she has managed Trump, which is arguably the number one issue for Mexico’s economy at the moment, and much of her popular support is propped up on that issue.
Economic transfers. Morena is spending money delivering economic benefits to their base, and that keeps the president and her party popular.
Security has improved. Homicides are down and the perception of security has improved in many of the most populated parts of Mexico compared to EPN’s and AMLO’s term in office.
Mexico’s opposition is weak and divided. There is not a clear and popular alternative to Sheinbaum and her agenda. That helps keep her numbers up.
Mexican presidents are always popular. Other than President Peña Nieto, who was a major exception to this rule, Mexican citizens often say they approve of their president in higher numbers than most other countries facing similar circumstances. Zedillo, Fox, and Calderon polled far higher than you probably think given how their terms were judged in the media. AMLO always outperformed in the polls. Sheinbaum inherits that, which is good for the top line but could suggest softer support than the numbers imply.
Having written that, here are two potential additional explanations that are worth considering. I’m not sure if either are correct, but I’m considering them.
Theory 1: Her approval ratings are actually dropping. This goes against everything above, but is a theory to be considered. Sheinbaum’s approval ratings are down from where they were six months ago and slowly declining. She is popular because she started well and received the anti-Trump boost early in her term. But at the current pace, the economic reality will catch up and her numbers will drop into the 50s or lower. As the chart below from El Financiero shows, she is less popular on specific critical issues that she is when voters are asked about general approval.
Theory 2: Morena is sustainably popular. AMLO has successfully built a national political machine that has kept Sheinbaum popular and she is benefitting from it. That means she will remain popular for the next 18 months at the very least, but it also makes her beholden to her predecessor and gives him outsized influence in politics in the upcoming elections.
I recognize that none of the above provides a single clear explanation. For now, however, her numbers have remained high despite several shocks to the political system (Trump’s threats, the CJNG national violence, the recent energy issues), and the status quo is a good reason to believe she remains above 50% for the rest of the year.