Mexico - What’s your protest baseline?
Mexico City's protests were big, bold, and pretty normal.
There were big and sometimes violent protests in Mexico City over the weekend.
When you have the contrast of big, photogenic protests against a very popular president, it creates some confusing, contradictory analysis.
Some are calling them Gen-Z led protests, the Discord-organized youth with One Piece pirate flags similar to what has been seen in Nepal, Peru, and elsewhere. Some say the protests are inspired by Carlos Manzo, the mayor who was assassinated earlier this month and was a Bukele-like figure who is now a martyr. Some claim it’s the traditional opposition to Morena (the old PRI and PAN) is pretending to be a new movement. The government claims the protesters were orchestrated by bots and that the coverage is mostly fake news. Regardless of the take, the scenes of protesters clashing with police in the Zocalo were global news, contrasting with the usual analysis of how popular President Sheinbaum is.
It can be challenging to determine the significance of a single protest because there are often big and sometimes violent protests in Mexico City.
See this article from late 2020 by Denise Dresser about feminists protesting against AMLO. Or watch the video from March 2024 when the protesters drove a truck through the door of the national palace to protest the deaths of the 43 students in Guerrero a decade ago. Or here is an article about a massive protest in the Zocalo in 2013 to protest Peña Nieto’s energy reform. And remember back in late 2006 when that one opposition politician held a giant ceremony, claimed election fraud, declared himself president, and then tried to block Calderon from being inaugurated. Those were some crazy times.
I lived in Mexico City from 2013 to 2016 and can remember multiple times per year when protests interrupted daily life. Sometimes I’d just stay home. Sometimes I’d head out and chat with people (protesters are often remarkably friendly and, when you treat them with respect, eager to chat about their reasons for being out in the streets). Often, the next day, I’d see major landmarks defaced with spray paint by the protesters.
With that baseline of big protests, this past weekend looks fairly typical. It’s the sort of thing that happens a few times per year in Mexico City; it disrupts things for a bit, and then life moves on. I’m not saying the protests don’t deserve coverage or that they shouldn't be taken seriously by the political system and the companies that are impacted. Sheinbaum should not be so dismissive of people’s concerns as to claim they are all manipulated by bots. But it’s also not the moment to hit the panic button. Sheinbaum’s presidency is not at risk, and the president remains popular.
However, as analysts, we’re all haunted by Chile in 2019. In the decades prior to 2019, the country had almost annual protests by student movements and even a couple of years where those protests seemed relatively significant and disruptive. Gabriel Boric made his name in the 2011 wave of protests. So when the 2019 protests began, they initially matched the baseline, and many people treated them as similar to previous waves of protests. Years of “normal” student protests led analysts to underestimate just how bad the situation could get if it hit an inflection point. They turned out to escalate rapidly and be several magnitudes more significant than any of the previous years.
When you experience an outlier year like that, it can be difficult not to hit the panic button every time a new protest movement emerges.
All protests deserve to be taken seriously. They should be monitored to identify their root causes and potential triggers of escalation. In this case, I’m watching:
How Sheinbaum responds to the concerns about security that underpinned the protests. Her dismissiveness of the concerns is a reason to believe that more protests may occur in the future.
Whether the protesters have plans for follow-up. The capital was relatively quiet the day after the protests, but the various chat groups where the protests were organized are buzzing about potential future events. That’s a long-term problem, but not an immediate sign of escalation.
Did the security forces use excessive force? I thought they were relatively restrained last weekend, acting similarly to other protests in Mexico City. The images looked quite serious, but the security forces’ actual actions were typical. Overly repressive security measures in the capital and casualties among protesters would be a bad sign.
Sheinbaum’s popularity. It’s sky high and a small drop would not be surprising. But a sharp drop in popularity, concerns about economic malaise and inflation, combined with a rise in perceptions of insecurity and high levels of corruption in government, would signal a population angry enough to protest in larger numbers.
Finally, I’m also wondering what the next spark is. The assassination of Manzo sparked this wave. But I think a bigger set of protests requires a bigger spark. Another big attack by organized crime or the perception of a unilateral attack by the US military against targets in Mexico are two potential sparks to consider in the coming six months.
All the above is a long way of saying that I think the protests in Mexico City this past weekend were the sorts of completely normal protests that we often see in the capital. They are worth monitoring. The government should take the issues seriously. But this isn’t yet the next big protest wave.