Mexico - The old PRI vs the new PRI
An opposition led by the PRI is no opposition at all. It only benefits AMLO.
This past weekend, voters in Coahuila and Estado de Mexico (Edomex) had to choose between candidates from the PRI and Morena. Voters in Coahuila chose to keep the PRI in power, one of only two governorships that the once-dominant party now controls. With less than 50% turnout, voters in Edomex elected Morena candidate Delfina Gómez. The election ended the PRI's 94 years of control over that state. Morena now controls 21 governorships.
In case it's not clear why the PRI lost Edomex, I highly recommend reading last week's Guardian article on corruption in the state and threats made against a journalist there who reported on the corruption.
The implications of losing Edomex mean the PRI lost a key source of their power. The party is built around a style of clientelism in which they use government resources to get out votes. Without control of the state government that has served as a hub of corruption for decades, their base of support will be even less likely to turn out next year. It’s too early to say the party has entered a death spiral and is done. They’ve come back once before. But losing Edomex will make it far harder to win votes nationally. And for Morena, winning Edomex will make it all the easier for the expansion and consolidation of their own clientelistic networks.
With that said, let's step back and reflect on what an awful choice those voters have been given. Should voters support the old corrupt ruling party that governed undemocratically for decades, or should they back the new corrupt ruling party attempting to consolidate control and undermine democracy today? Should they back the old PRI, a party AMLO joined as a young politician decades ago, or Morena, a party that AMLO is trying to build into a national dynasty with a PRI-like playbook for the 21st century?
Generally, when trying to counter a rising authoritarian, opposition parties are best served by unifying. But the PAN, PRD, MC, and other opposition parties should understand the threat the old PRI represents. The corruption and violence that took place under President Enrique Peña Nieto and the PRI governors that served in the 2010s represent much of what is wrong with Mexican politics today. An opposition led by the PRI is no opposition at all.
If in 2024, voters are only given the choice of old PRI vs new PRI, the candidates supported by AMLO's new PRI will win. The opposition needs to unify, but they also need credible candidates and leadership who don't represent the corrupt old guard that helped AMLO and Morena obtain power in the first place. This past weekend's elections should be a wakeup call to Mexico's political system that voters need to be given better choices if Mexico's democracy is to survive and improve.