Mexico - Steady national homicide numbers hide large state level shifts

19 of Mexico’s 32 states had a greater than 10% change (either positive or negative) in homicides in 2019 compared to 2018.

Last week, Mexico’s National Statistics Institute (INEGI) published the homicide data from 2019. That data showed homicide rates remaining almost completely stable on the national level. The reduction of 209 homicides represents about a half percent change and will likely disappear when updated statistics are provided later this year. 

Yet, the stability at the national level does not occur at the local level. According to the INEGI data, 19 of Mexico’s 32 states had a greater than 10% change (either positive or negative) in homicides in 2019 compared to 2018. I created a map using the data released last week. The orange/red states are where violence increased and the blue states are where it decreased.

That trend seems to be extending into 2020.  The national levels of homicides are quite steady (perhaps up 1.5% this year), but the state data shows high levels of change. A few weeks ago I published a map of homicide changes in the first six months of this year using data from SESNSP. So far in 2020, 21 states have greater than ten percent change (either positive or negative) in their homicide rates.

(Are you the sort of person who wants to know how the IENGI data are different from SESNSP and why the data from IENGI released last week show about 20% higher levels of homicides? Alejandro Hope’s column today scratches your data nerd itch.)

The trend so far under Lopez Obrador is that violence is moving around the country. 

In the 22 months that AMLO has been in office, homicide reductions in one area of the country are matched by increases in other states and municipalities. 

There are some success stories. Jalisco, Guerrero, Mexico City and Tamaulipas are all significantly safer than they were a few years ago. Mexico City only recorded 73 homicides in August. That was the safest month since March 2017.

One thing I don’t know is whether those changes in security are caused by government actions or shifts in the criminal environment. It’s possible that government operations push criminals elsewhere, what is commonly called the balloon effect. However, I don’t see AMLO government operations as being the driving force behind the improved security in certain states (Jalisco, Tamaulipas, Sinaloa, Guerrero) and my gut instinct is that it is driven by the criminal environment. However, I haven’t put together the data to be certain of that.

The long term security narrative has shifted

The INEGI data goes back to 1990. I may try to write about some of the long term changes in future newsletters, but here is one thing that stood out to me while I was putting together charts for this post.

Homicides in 2019 were up 34% since 2011 (the year they previously peaked). Mexico’s population has also increased during that time period. So any states that have seen reductions in homicides compared to their 2011 numbers would demonstrate a significant difference from the national environment. The states with fewer homicides in 2019 than 2011 are Coahuila, Chihuahua, Durango, Guerrero, Nayarit, Nuevo Leon, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, and Yucatan.

In terms of homicides, northeast Mexico is a whole lot safer now than it was a decade ago. The reduction in the threat from the Zetas has something to do with that shift. However, if you talk to analysts who focus on those states, they’ll discuss the fact that a fragmented group of violent criminals still fight for territory and engage in extortion, cargo theft, human trafficking and kidnapping. Homicides aren’t everything.

Thanks for reading

What else should I do with all this data? Would people be interested in a longer term view at specific states? Your feedback will shape future newsletters on this topic. If you want to be added to the newsletter distribution list, please enter your email at https://boz.substack.com/ or email me at boz@substack.com and I will add you.