Mexico Security Note - March 2025
Are the Sheinbaum government and the CJNG on a collision course?
Families of disappeared in Mexico found a mass grave in Teuchitlán, Jalisco, that they are calling an “extermination camp.” I’m not going to spend time describing the gruesome details. You can read more from Ioan Grillo. There are plenty of media outlets reporting on it as well.
As Carlos Loret writes this morning, the heavy coverage of mass disappearances is disrupting the government’s official narrative about security. The official numbers of homicides are down, but the numbers of disappearances are up by a far greater number. If homicides are a key metric of success for the government, finding mass graves is not a priority.
Mexico’s president initially downplayed the reports on this extermination camp. This generated a backlash including people placing shoes in downtown Mexico City to represent the missing people whose bodies have likely been destroyed. As of this morning, Sheinbaum now says resolving disappearance cases will be a national priority and she is authorizing resources to assist with the search.
The CJNG posted a very political video online denying their involvement and also accusing the families of the missing of lying and exaggerating their claims. They highlight the fact the government initially took over the ranch in September, playing into people’s fears the government may be responsible for some disappearances. The CJNG spokesperson states that they stand with the people of Mexico, which is a bold insurgent-like statement that does not usually come from the cartels. Posing with a couple dozen men carrying military weapons, they said they were not threatening anyone. Obviously, they were threatening the searchers who continue to look for more disappeared family members. But they were also threatening the government. Historically, the Mexican government is far less tolerant of armed groups that claim political motivations than those simply involved in organized crime. By claiming they were with the people, the CJNG is posing a more direct challenge.
Also this week, on the Jalisco-Michoacan border, a CJNG ambush killed six soldiers. There are credible rumors in Queretaro that the CJNG assassinated a businessman close to AMLO’s children and their network of corruption. Those are direct actions targeting the Sheinbaum government
In recent months, the biggest organized crime story in Mexico has been the Sinaloa Cartel civil war. That internal fight in Sinaloa has led to the decline of the Sinaloa vs CJNG proxy battles, one plausible explanation contributing to the decline of homicides in several Mexican cities and states.
The Sheinbaum government has benefitted from the Sinaloa cartel implosion. But one obvious outcome is that a decline in Sinaloa Cartel power likely benefits the CJNG. The balance of power has shifted and no group or alliance now threatens the CJNG expansion.
As I think through everything above, I get a sense the government may be on a collision course with the CJNG in the coming year.
The criminal group is becoming too powerful and too political.
The Sheinbaum government, even if she pulls from AMLO’s playbook on a regular basis, does not quite share the same level of shamelessness in terms of manipulating the facts.
Sheinbaum and her team want to accomplish more, not just create the media perception of success.
Back in 2020, CJNG gunmen in Mexico City ambushed the car carrying Omar Garcia Harfuch, Sheinbaum’s leading security advisor. It was a bold and rare attack in the capital that signaled a criminal group ready to act at a national level. Mid-Covid, AMLO’s response was lackluster; life went on. Garcia Harfuch certainly has not forgotten.
All that analysis is before considering the questions of Trump, terrorist designations, tariffs, etc, which likely add to the pressure on Sheinbaum to do more.
Playing against that analysis, Sheinbaum wants to avoid escalating violence. The government going to war against the CJNG would lead to more homicides and public violent events that would disrupt daily life. It would harm the investor-friendly image that Sheinbaum is trying to create in the country.
Then again, it’s not just Sheinbaum who decides. The CJNG could escalate this situation on their own, whether or not the government targets them more directly. In the past, that would have seemed unlikely. Criminal groups want profits more than violence; insurgent groups care less about profits. Any additional signals that the CJNG is choosing violence over profits or otherwise targeting politicians or businesses close to the Morena government should be considered a sign that the CJNG is leaning towards insurgent tendencies, meaning a greater escalation is on the way.
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