Mexico - Comments on security - July 2022
AMLO will try to claim credit for reduced homicides, but the situation still doesn't look great.
Yesterday’s newsletter for paying subscribers included a map of homicide changes during the first half of 2022. As of this morning, I’ve dropped the paywall for everyone to access the maps and data. Credit goes to Lucy Hale for creating those maps and charts.
The key points of yesterday’s post were:
Homicides are down about 10% in the first half of this year.
Homicides are still up significantly compared to six years ago.
We’re in a moment where the qualitative and quantitative data aren’t lining up. The Sinaloa Cartel was recently found operating near Mexico City. A dozen journalists have been killed in the first half of this year. There have been a string of high profile roadblocks and shootings in northern Mexico in areas that have statistically seen drops in violence.
It is unlikely that the statistics are wrong or being manipulated, at least in a serious way that makes them completely wrong. Homicides do seem to be down in Mexico compared to last year, even as they remain close enough to their highest levels ever. The recent drop may just be a “revert to the mean” moment in which the levels of violence are finding a new normal. The high profile violent events that have taken place suggest that there is an ongoing serious “cartel war” that continues, even as day-to-day street violence may have diminished in some key locations.
The Washington Post published an interesting report on how difficult it was to apprehend Rafael Caro Quintero. There were multiple failed attempts prior to the eventual successful operation, a sign of high level leaks within the Mexican security forces. While the US played a critical role in the capture, AMLO stressed that the operation was totally planned and managed by Mexico with no US involvement.
While we can celebrate the capture of RCQ, there is plenty of evidence that capturing high value criminal leaders doesn’t lower violence and can lead to temporary disruptions of criminal markets that increase violence. As InSight Crime writes, El Chapo’s sons are likely to be the winners of the arrest of Caro Quintero given the recent feuds in that sector of northwest Mexico.
One other concern is that Mexico’s economic situation is deteriorating and poverty is increasing under AMLO’s policies. If the US enters a recession, it’s very likely Mexico will too. Recessions usually lead to an increase in crime. So these recent improvements may not last.
Lopez Obrador will take advantage of any security improvements and deflect questions about violent events or increasing corruption. He remains popular and most Mexicans either think AMLO has improved the situation or at the very least is not to blame for the security problems, many of which began before his term. However, as the 2024 election draws near, there will be a question of whether AMLO’s teflon on security issues can be transferred to a successor. AMLO ran against Peña Nieto’s security failures. His successor won’t have that same advantage.