Mexico - A violent January signals a violent 2022
Juarez and Michoacán are among the locations that have seen increased violence. Four journalists killed in the past month signal criminals targeting those who report on the violence.
Yesterday, we published some maps about Mexico’s violence in 2021. As of this morning, I’ve dropped the paywall on that article. We’ve also added a map that wasn’t in the email, which I’ll copy here, showing the raw numbers of homicides in each state.
This morning, we have a few more comments on Mexico security.
Michoacán battles increase
Recent months in Michoacán have seen explosives on drones and heavy weaponry used. There have been multiple videos of significant military-grade weaponry and training, more than have been seen in the past. While violence has increased in a number of states in Mexico and Michoacán has had almost continuous violence since 2006, the type of violence in Michoacán has a different feel, closer to “warfare” than the various gang fights and extortion occurring in most other states that are often classified as cartel “wars.”.
An AP report late last year described how the federal security forces are trying to enforce the boundaries of organized crime groups, not deter or stop crime completely. And even in that limited mission, they appear to be failing as homicides increase, local police forces get ambushed, and there are regular battles among criminal groups where no military or National Guard forces are present.
Vice covered how the fights in Michoacán have increased lime prices in Mexico. The fights over limes and avocados are not new; it’s been a story for over a decade. But any time there is an actual price increase that appears to be driven by violent crime and extortion, that’s a market signal for a worsening situation.
Juarez on fire
There were at least 80 homicides in Juarez in the first month of the year. In addition, a series of arson attacks appears to indicate that the multi-cartel battle over the border crossing area has become even more complex.
Over the last two years, the Juarez Cartel battled the Sinaloa Cartel for Juarez. The CJNG appeared to form a quiet alliance with the Juarez Cartel, even as they moved into the state of Sonora and began fighting the Sinaloa Cartel for the routes on the Sonora-Chihuahua border (a minor internal split within the Sinaloa Cartel did not help things).
The arsons at the beginning of this year, however, appear to be related to a totally separate feud. The Cartel de Noreste (a Zetas offshoot) has entered the state from the east and is making a play for routes near the Juarez area. There also appears to be a new split within the Juarez Cartel.
The disintegration of large groups into smaller factions that fight each other is one of the trends that has contributed to increases in violence over the past 15 years and we’re seeing it play out as a micro-narrative in the past month in Juarez. Criminal divisions and fights among multiple criminal groups over neighborhoods in the city and routes outside the city are likely to drive violence higher in the coming months. No group is likely to consolidate control given the divisions among the various groups.
You’ll notice nothing written above mentions government security forces. Neither local police forces nor the National Guard deployment appear to be having any impact on the security situation in the city.
Four Mexican journalists killed in a month
Roberto Toledo of Monitor Michoacán was killed in the city of Zitácuaro.
Margarito Martínez and Lourdes Maldonado López were killed in Tijuana.
José Luis Gamboa killed in Veracruz.
2022 has begun as another incredibly violent year for Mexican journalists. The four above were likely killed by criminal organizations. Violence against journalists has continued in spite of promises by the Lopez Obrador government to stop it. The murders are very rarely investigated and prosecuted.
Why is great investigative journalism needed? Why isn’t AMLO doing more to protect journalists?
This right here is one example:
More on that in a future newsletter.
Thanks for reading
Have a great afternoon.