Map - Do Latin American countries prefer Trump or Harris?
Explaining the map I previewed yesterday.
I made a map. The graphic was included in yesterday's newsletter about Venezuela, but today's newsletter will explain the map in more detail.
Is this the official positions of governments? No. Smart governments know it's generally good diplomatic practice to stay neutral and not play favorites in US elections. Most governments do not have an official position on the US election. Some might be willing to offer a cryptic comment you can decode to suggest they prefer one side or another.
So where did the data for this map come from? It's arbitrary and made up by me using my best guess as an analyst of the region's politics.
Why did you classify x country this way when I'm certain they support the other side? Ok, I've gotten plenty of this type of feedback already with certainly more to come. Once again, it's my analysis. As with all of my maps, feel free to make your own map if you think you can do it better.
Mexico - Claudia Sheinbaum is a leftist who would prefer a center-left woman in the White House to Donald Trump. AMLO got along well with Trump and was able to negotiate and manipulate him at times, but the risks with Trump are bigger than the risks with Harris. Trump’s threats to bomb cartel sites in Mexico or close the border are not empty. The renegotiation of USMCA, which will be difficult for Mexico under either potential US president, would be far more chaotic under Trump.
While she probably prefers Harris, Sheinbaum is quite well-positioned for a potential Trump administration. Morena has dealt with him before and could manage it again.
Guatemala - No president in this hemisphere needs Harris to win as much as Arevalo. A Harris administration will support Arevalo. A Trump administration will back the opponents who are trying to remove Guatemala’s president from office.
Venezuela, Cuba - I explained Venezuela’s preference for Trump in yesterday's newsletter. Cuba, in contrast, can rightfully expect that a Harris administration would return to an Obama-like policy that helps resume relations and trade between the two countries (I always expected that Biden, like Obama, would make that push in a second term). It’s an interesting split between the two countries that are allies and often lumped together.
Nicaragua - I'm less sure how to classify Nicaragua on this map. Then again, so is Daniel Ortega, who is probably too drunk to realize a US election is occurring. Nicaragua's fear should be that, unlike Venezuela and Maduro, they don't have oil deals to trade with Trump in exchange for better relations. If Trump is going to cut a deal with Maduro, as I wrote yesterday that he would likely do, then he might balance that with hitting Nicaragua harder to try to keep some Florida voters content. Meanwhile, a Harris policy towards Nicaragua is not going to normalize relations the way it might with Cuba. They will continue being quite critical of the regime in Managua.
Guyana - If Venezuela leans one way, Guyana should probably lean the other.
Brazil, Chile, Colombia - Latin America's democratically elected ideological left prefers Harris to Trump. This seems too obvious to explain any further.
Honduras, Bolivia - Neither country gets along great with Biden and neither would be best friends with Harris (even though Harris attended the inauguration of President Xiomara Castro). But they would both be the targets of far more negative policies under a hypothetical Trump administration and have little to offer in return for better relations.
Paraguay, Peru - The pair that sits opposite of Honduras and Bolivia, these two countries also struggle with diplomatic relations under either presidency due to some democracy and corruption concerns (worse in Peru than in Paraguay). However, they can probably cut deals with Trump that they cannot with Harris and are ideologically closer to Trump and his team.
Argentina - No president on the planet has a better win-win scenario in the 2024 US election than Javier Milei. Argentina's president has positioned the country well to have a friendly relationship with Biden and work with US foreign policy on a number of critical issues, including China, Venezuela, Ukraine, and Israel. That would continue under Harris. At the same time, Milei is a CPAC speaker and a Trump fan who would be among the top allies if the GOP wins the US election. Milei very clearly prefers Trump, but he'll be just fine under a Harris presidency.
El Salvador - Like Milei, Bukele has positioned himself as a Trump ally who would benefit greatly from a Republican win. Unlike Milei, Bukele is barely tolerated by Biden administration officials who work with him because they have to. El Salvador, unlike Argentina, has had some top officials sanctioned due to corruption and human rights concerns and those sanctions would likely continue and expand under a Harris administration. Bukele has bet hard on a Trump victory.
Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Panama, Ecuador - A group of countries governed by center-right presidents are essentially coinflips on this question. They probably get along ideologically with Trump slightly better but would also welcome the greater professionalism that a Harris administration will bring. I tried to guess which side they prefer, but I could have just as easily had them lean to the other side or left them neutral. Uruguay probably also fits in this category but it's always funnier to put the country in its own category.
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