Latin America Risk Report - 9 May 2019
Bolsonaro and his sons argue with the military; Venezuela deals with the fallout from the 30 April events
In this edition:
Brazil - Bolsonaro and his family vs the military and vice president
Venezuela Update
Earlier this week I published an analysis of Panama’s election for paying subscribers.
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Brazil - Bolsonaro and his family vs the military and vice president
Tensions between the Bolsonaro family and the military wing of the administration have increased in recent weeks. This friction and conflict is spilling into public view and hindering progress on key initiatives.
After weeks of public dispute between Bolsonaro’s sons and the vice president, this week’s soap opera revolves around statements made by Olavo de Carvalho, a pundit with the ear of the president and his sons, who has criticized the current and former generals who make up some of the top cabinet positions in the administration. In particular, Olavo has targeted Vice President Hamilton Mourão and Minister Carlos Alberto dos Santos Cruz; and the president’s sons appear to repeat the attacks on social media. This has led several former military commanders outside of government to rhetorically fire back.
Bolsonaro was forced to hold a public lunch with his military on Tuesday in an attempt to defuse the dispute. Behind the scenes, the military wing of the Bolsonaro administration is losing out to more extreme ideologues including the president’s own children. As the Congress considers the Bolsonaro administration’s plan to reorganize ministries, it is possible that the former military commanders who make up a large portion of Bolsonaro’s cabinet could lose out on influence.
An immediate challenge for President Jair Bolsonaro is that his children are adding to the administration’s disorganization and infighting.
As the Financial Times describes, Bolsonaro’s son Carlos continues to serve as a de facto spokesman for his father, particularly on social media, even though his only official position is as a municipal alderman in the Rio de Janeiro city government. Two weeks ago, Carlos posted a video on the president’s Twitter account criticizing the vice president. The president or one of his aides removed the video in order to avoid aggravating the internal fighting. In anger, Carlos changed the password, locking the president out of his own social media account.
Eduardo is a deputy in the lower house who has unofficially taken on a key foreign policy advisory role, overshadowing the foreign affairs minister and the unusually strong “deep state” that exists in Itamaraty. Eduardo’s presence on the international stage, including visits to the US and Europe, has prevented more moderate elements within the administration from toning down the controversies the president creates.
Flavio is an elected senator and serves as his father’s chief supporter within the legislature. That was demonstrated this week as the senator defended his father’s decree on firearms. At the same time, Flavio faces an ongoing corruption scandal involving alleged kickback payments through his driver. Flavio is also involved in the broader family scandal that links the Bolsonaros to various paramilitary and militia groups.
The controversies and disputes have played a role in stalling the president’s domestic agenda, which is impacting Brazil’s economy. They have also created confusion in the foreign affairs arena as Vice President Hamilton Mourão publicly disagreed with Bolsonaro regarding the options available in Venezuela.
This disarray is almost guaranteed to continue given the fact the president and his sons remain quite close. The Bolsonaro brothers are going to play a major role in their father’s administration and will clash with any others who try to weaken their influence.
Venezuela update
The past week has focused on the fallout from the 30 April uprising. One of the most common analyses on 30 April was that the day would change everything. As Guaido appeared on video with armed military behind him, it certainly seemed that either he would emerge victorious or that the Maduro regime would be forced to finally detain him.
Perhaps the most surprising outcome has been the continued stalemate beyond the tension of that day. Maduro remains in charge of the vast majority of the security forces. Top generals continue to publicly back Maduro in spite of rumors that they were negotiating ousting him and Maduro has not removed those generals who were reported to be acting. Still, Maduro has not detained Guaido and the interim president retains significant freedom of movement, able to go around the country meeting with citizens and organizing rallies.
Loyalty tests after alleged breaks within the military and civilian leadership. The Supreme Court stripped the immunity of seven legislators including Henry Ramos Allup. Journalist Naky Soto called the move a “proof of loyalty” for the head of the Supreme Court, who was rumored to be part of the negotiations with Guaido to oust Maduro via a Supreme Court ruling that the military leadership would follow.
On Wednesday evening, the vice president of the National Assembly was detained by SEBIN. This appears to be another show of loyalty by an institution that was allegedly involved in the 30 April uprising.
Protests were limited over the past week. This is perhaps the first real sign of weakening on the part of Guaido. Having called for continued protests leading to a general strike, the levels of protests have declined in the week since the 30 April or 1 May events. Guaido has limited his calls for large additional protests in recent days, but he has resumed traveling to various locations and appearing at rallies for supporters and promoting small protest events. At a press conference on Thursday afternoon, he called for a new protest on 11 May.
International actions. Globally, there is significant media focus on the role of international actors in solving or prolonging Venezuela’s crisis. Officials in the US and Russian governments are talking with each other about Venezuela. The Lima Group and EU-backed International Contact Group are meeting with each other. There is a debate about whether negotiations should include Cuba and whether Havana can play a productive role in a transition (though the Cuban government’s current public stance that Maduro is part of any negotiations is stalling public progress on that front). None of these international negotiations has a clear and workable plan for dealing with Venezuela, but they are keeping the country’s crisis in the news and near the top of the global agenda.
Corruption Corner
Peru - Bloomberg profiled Jose Domingo Perez, the prosecutor who is investigating a wide variety of Odebrecht and corruption related cases that are targeting top politicians. InSight Crime covered the mysterious deaths that have occurred during the Odebrecht investigation.
Guatemala - The CICIG is investigating eight allies of President Jimmy Morales including his minister of economy and the presidential candidate for his FCN party in the upcoming election. Prosecutors have also opened an investigation into Víctor Manuel Cruz Rivera, the judge who ordered the arrest of presidential candidate Thelma Aldana, on accusations he received a large bribe for issuing his ruling in that case.
Venezuela - Transparency Venezuela has a major new report on 2018 corruption issues that highlights several key case studies of corruption. The Inter-American Dialogue held an event on corruption and transitional justice in Venezuela this morning (9 May).
Reading List
Reuters - How a Chinese venture in Venezuela made millions while locals grew hungry
The Economist - Populism and polarisation threaten Latin America
Bloomberg - As Latin America Gets Poorer, Democracy Itself Is Now Questioned
NYT - Inside Gang Territory in Honduras
Armando.info - La conjura de los testaferros
Miami Herald - Trump deplores Chavistas, but did he cash in selling property to one of them?
InSight Crime - Failed Venezuela Uprising Benefits Armed and Criminal Groups
Vice - Extreme Cartel Violence Has Come to Mexico City
House Foreign Affairs Committee - Dollar Diplomacy or Debt Trap? Examining China’s Role in the Western Hemisphere
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