In this edition:
An extra long corruption corner this week highlighting stories out of Honduras and Mexico.
Bolivia: Añez gains from coronavirus crisis
This week, subscribers received an update on the situation in Venezuela. The key point is that food and gasoline shortages remain a far more important driver of political unrest in the coming two months than the crazy invasion conspiracy story that has captured everyone’s attention.
Corruption Corner
Honduras - US prosecutors charged Juan Carlos Bonilla Valladares, alias “El Tigre,” with cocaine trafficking. The filing makes clear that Bonilla assisted President Juan Orlando Hernandez in running drug trafficking organizations and that Hernandez gave Bonilla “special assignments, including murder.” InSight Crime and Jeff Ernst both dig further into the indictment for those who want additional details.
Hernandez has managed to ingratiate himself to the Trump administration with policies including accepting deportations and moving the embassy in Israel. His alliance with the US president has helped protect him even as increasing information about his connections to drug trafficking have emerged.
Though receiving less attention than his counterpart in El Salvador, Hernandez is among the politicians who have used the coronavirus crisis to consolidate power and hold back political opponents. Hernandez also maintains the support of the security forces, helping him retain power as the population’s ability to protest these new corruption allegations is limited by the coronavirus quarantine.
Mexico - Even as coronavirus continues to dominate the headlines, Mexican politics has seen increasing accusations and counter-accusations of corruption in the recent weeks.
Some corruption has been directly linked to the health crisis and energy issues. Leon Manuel Bartlett, son of CFE Director Manuel Bartlett, received contracts from Mexico’s social security agency (IMSS) to sell 20 ventilators at excessive prices. A separate contract to purchase 2,500 ventilators has also been flagged for potential corruption.
In the background, other stories of corruption under the current administration have hit the media. Several National Guard commanders were forced out after photos appeared of them at a restaurant with a huachicolero group. Mexican media also covered how the winner of the Tren Maya bid was previously accused of corruption in Spain.
To combat the accusations of corruption, AMLO’s administration has been pushing stories to the media about how President Peña Nieto’s administration diverted IMSS funds that should have gone to ventilator purchases. As I wrote last week, AMLO has ordered the Financial Intelligence Unit to look into EPN’s bank accounts as part of anti-corruption investigations. Lopez Obrador has also returned to highlighting corruption under the Calderon administration, publicly encouraging the US to investigate what it knew about corruption related to former Public Safety Secretary Genaro Garcia Luna, who is currently charged with assisting drug traffickers.
Lopez Obrador was elected by voters who were tired of corruption. His approval ratings show that he continues to be perceived as less corrupt than his predecessors. Rather than cleaning up Mexican politics, AMLO appears to believe going on the offense against his predecessors is the best way to maintain those high approval ratings. Lopez Obrador is aware that if the stories of corruption in his administration begin to stick in the public mind, he could lose one of his top political advantages.
Colombia - Semana Magazine revealed the Colombian military has been keeping files on journalists and activists, combining their social media activity with other databases that include information about their addresses, known contacts and vehicle registration. The WSJ reports that surveillance equipment provided by the US government was used against some of the targets.
Brazil - Sergio Moro released additional information about his disputes with President Bolsonaro that led to his resignation as minister of justice. According to Moro, Bolsonaro demanded control over the police in the state of Rio de Janeiro. That control would give the president information and potential influence over corruption investigations into his sons. This week, Bolsonaro named Rolando Alexandre de Souza as the federal police chief. Many analysts believe that move places an ally of the president in the position and will hamper federal corruption investigations.
Bolivia: Añez gains from coronavirus crisis
A poll from Ciesmori has President Jeanine Añez with 64% approval and 25% disapproval. That’s matched with 63% of the population who say her government is doing a good job combatting coronavirus.
The increased approval has been an electoral boost, with Añez in a technical tie for the lead in the presidential election that has been postponed due to coronavirus. Añez has 26%, MAS candidate Luis Arce has 24% and former President Carlos Mesa has 20%. Everyone else is deep down in the single digits. Even with the typical cautionary note that this is only one poll and likely undercounts rural areas, the jump in both approval and votes for Añez demonstrates the advantages of incumbency in a crisis.
While the population supports the government response, the Ciesmori poll shows the population is worried about the economic impact of the quarantine and wants greater economic support. As with other presidents in the region, Añez must pivot to the next steps or risk seeing her approval gains wither away.
In recent weeks, MAS has been pushing to hold the election sooner. If other polls confirm the boost for Añez, the president may surprise them by agreeing to hold the election sooner rather than waiting for the economic damage to drop her approval back to its previous levels.
Reading List
New York Times - If They’re ‘Essential,’ They Can’t Be ‘Illegal’
Foreign Affairs - Latin America’s Prison Gangs Draw Strength From the Pandemic
New York Times - As World Comes to Halt Amid Pandemic, So Do Migrants
NPR - U.S. Nets Trove Of Drugs, But 'Enhanced' Operations Haven't Budged Maduro Or COVID
Washington Post - From a Miami condo to the Venezuelan coast, how a plan to ‘capture’ Maduro went rogue
Associated Press - US investigating ex-Green Beret for Venezuela raid
WLRN - Guaidó. Goudreau. Good God. It's Time To End Venezuela Opposition's Military Fantasies
New York Times - Bolsonaro Fights for Survival, Turning to Empowered Military Elders
Reuters - Brazil's Bolsonaro headlines anti-democratic rally amid alarm over handling of coronavirus
Guardian - Brazil using coronavirus to cover up assaults on Amazon, warn activists
Guardian - ‘For the lives of our mothers’: Covid-19 sparks fight for maids’ rights in Brazil
Reuters - Brazil fears agriculture protectionism amid pandemic: draft report
International Crisis Group - Mexico’s Everyday War: Guerrero and the Trials of Peace
Bloomberg - Mexico’s Central Bankers Raise Alarm Over Surge in Violence
El Financiero - Rebota aprobación de AMLO en abril; pasa de 60 a 68%
LA Times - The U.S. is pushing Mexico to reopen factories even as workers die of COVID-19
Reuters - As U.S. auto supply chain revs up, worker safety fears linger in Mexico
Associated Press - Social distancing long routine in areas run by armed groups
Baker Institute - The Spatial Dimension of Crime in Mexico City (2016-2019) (pdf)
New York Times - Young Leader Vowed Change in El Salvador but Wields Same Heavy Hand
Wall Street Journal - A Peruvian Bureaucrat’s Coronavirus Fight Makes Her a Hero
Financial Times - Martín Guzmán: Argentina cannot afford to pay creditors more
Bloomberg - Argentina, Creditors Said to Look Past Deadline on Debt Deal
Washington Post - Two years after Nicaragua’s mass uprising started, why is Daniel Ortega still in power?
Guardian - Chile: pandemic highlights health crisis as lockdown halts inequality protests
Americas Quarterly - Taiwan’s Last Stand in South America
Florida International University - The Cuban Economy: The Current Crisis, Its Causes, and Policies for the Future (pdf)
Event: May 18-22: Florida International University’s Annual Hemispheric Security Conference (HSC)
Event: May 18-22: Institute of the Americas’ Annual La Jolla Energy Conference
International Crisis Group - Climate Change Is Shaping the Future of Conflict
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