Latin America Risk Report - 6 March 2019
Commentary on Argentina's politics; Guaido returns to Venezuela
In this edition:
Argentina commentary about politics
Venezuela Update: Guaido Returns
Paying subscribers received an analysis of Nicaragua's new dialogue process and potential economic problems which included interviews with a member of the Civic Alliance and a local economist.
Argentina commentary about politics
As I wrap up a trip to Buenos Aires, I thought I’d offer some general notes from my conversations. Though I feel like I heard a good diversity of viewpoints, my sample is not random in a scientific sense. Also, I spoke to far more men than women (the taxi drivers were all men), and that definitely biases the sample.
Argentines aren’t happy with any politicians. In my random conversations in the city and the province (as opposed to my scheduled interviews and meetings where I sought specific people out), I did not encounter a single person who I would have defined as a supporter of Macri or Kirchner or any other politician. Many conversations would open with some version of “they’re all terrible” and move from there. Even the most anti-Kirchner citizens were critical of aspects of Macri’s administration while the most anti-Macri commentators were also willing to point out bad things about Kirchner. I know from polling and media coverage that strong supporters of both sides exist, but it’s interesting that in a week of talking politics in Argentina, I never randomly ran into one.
Argentines are really angry about energy prices. “Life is hard. The economy is doing poorly. We can’t afford the electricity coming to our home.” That quote came from someone who spent most of our conversation explaining why he hated Kirchner and how the Peronists destroyed the country. I heard some complaint about energy (electricity and fuel) prices from nearly every person I spoke with this week and they blamed the Macri administration.
From anti-Macri commentators, I also heard anger about inflation, food prices, unemployment, the IMF deal and a host of other economic criticisms. They certainly were not just angry about energy prices. But the anger over energy prices and Macri’s policies on them was constant across all conversations including those who spent most of their time criticizing Kirchner.
“Cristina is corrupt” was a common comment. People are very knowledgeable about Kirchner’s corruption, able to cite names and details about various cases that involve the former president and her late husband. Across the spectrum, most people viewed her administration as more corrupt than Macri’s. But the anger about corruption isn’t here in Argentina to the extent that I’ve seen in other LatAm countries. There is more of a resigned annoyance about it.
That lack of anger over corruption doesn’t mean there isn’t anger. Several anti-Kirchner citizens to whom I spoke were quite angry at Peronism and Peronist supporters. They would cite a long list of Peronist leaders who they disliked historically. Several, including some who I’d classify as lower middle class and on the edge of poverty, specifically criticized Personist voters for wanting “hand outs” rather than finding jobs.
Ultimately my takeaway from multiple conversation is the anti-Macri voters are angry at the president, his administration, and his policies. The anti-Kirchner voters very much dislike her and are knowledgeable about her failings in government, but their anger is directed at her base of supporters, who they see as disruptive to society and wanting handouts.
That is a disturbing and unbalanced level of polarization in the country and I’m not sure where it leads.
Venezuela Update: Guaido Returns
Juan Guaido is back in Caracas. Just as he said last week, he flew into the main airport rather than sneak in across a border. He was greeted as president by the workers there and by crowds nearby.
Guaido benefited from international support including messages by governments in the Western Hemisphere warning Maduro against arresting the interim president and an escort by European ambassadors from the airport to the rally.
More important than the international factor is the domestic one. Maduro and the security forces cannot ignore the outpouring of public support for Guaido including rallies in poor former Chavista neighborhoods in and around Caracas. Polling shows Guaido to be the most popular politician in the country and the only politician with a significant net-positive approval rating. That is a stunning rise for someone whose name was known by less than 10% of the population in early January.
Guaido’s new push has involved speaking with unions to obtain their support and their ability to mobilize. This effort could undermine Maduro through both economic damage and Maduro’s inability to get large numbers to the streets the way the Chavistas used to.
Hxagon is currently at 70% that Maduro loses power in 2019.
Corruption Corner
Colombia - A Colombian prosecutor in charge of reviewing FARC war crimes was arrested for accepting a bribe in exchange for influencing the extradition case of FARC leader Jesus Santrich. Also arrested was former Senator Luis Alberto Gil Castillo.
Brazil - Prosecutors are looking at potential collusion between Vale and auditors of dams that may have led to the safety violations prior to a dam collapse earlier this year. Vale CEO Fabio Schvartsman was pressured into stepping down along with other top executives.
Reading List
Alejandro Hope, El Universal - Cien Dias: Lo Bueno, Lo Malo y Lo Feo
Wilson Center - The Outlook for Mexico's Energy Sector under the AMLO Administration
The Guardian - Mexico slashes funding for women's shelters
International Crisis Group - Gold and Grief in Venezuela’s Violent South
WSJ - Hyperinflation Shatters Venezuelan Manufacturing
Washington Post - Interview with Juan Guaido
Inter-American Dialogue - Unfulfilled Promises: Latin America Today
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