Latin America Risk Report - 6 February 2019
Venezuela faces showdown over humanitarian aid; Nicaragua's democracy declines
In this week’s edition:
Update on Venezuela
Nicaragua moves further from democracy
Five points on Bukele
Update on Venezuela
Interim President Juan Guaido pushes forward with a plan to deliver humanitarian aid into Venezuela. As he has bluntly stated, this delivery will force the Venezuelan military to choose between supporting food deliveries to hungry Venezuelans or supporting Maduro’s orders to block humanitarian assistance.
Already facing discontent and desertions at the bottom levels and concerns about defections up top, Venezuela’s military commanders are not happy about being forced to make the choice.
Sources in Venezuela indicate many military commanders are quite unhappy with Maduro’s actions to force commanders to demonstrate loyalty. The top generals are very aware that the lower levels of the Armed Forces are angry at the de facto president. However, they don’t want to be pressured into taking action that might split the Armed Forces and lead to violence among various factions of the security forces.
The short term strategy has been to build temporary barriers at the Colombia-Venezuela border, but there is an understanding that these barriers are symbolic and could easily be removed.
On the international front, a statement by the Lima Group made clear the Venezuelan military should follow Guaido as commander-in-chief and allow humanitarian aid to enter the country. That same statement called for a peaceful solution to Venezuela’s current political conflict and rejected violence. Meanwhile, a majority of the European Union has backed Juan Guaido’s constitutional legitimacy as interim president while also urging both sides to discuss how to hold free and fair elections.
Nicaragua moves further from democracy
Freedom House published their 2019 report. The biggest move in the hemisphere is also the least surprising: Nicaragua dropped from “partly free” to “not free”. Here is the organization’s reasoning for the change:
Nicaragua’s status declined from Partly Free to Not Free due to authorities’ brutal repression of an antigovernment protest movement, which has included the arrest and imprisonment of opposition figures, intimidation and attacks against religious leaders, and violence by state forces and armed allied groups that resulted in hundreds of deaths.
The crisis in Nicaragua has moved to the background in the hemisphere with the emergence of Venezuela as the key regional issue. However, Nicaragua’s problems with democracy, human rights and corruption have also come with a severe economic contraction that threatens Ortega’s ability to pay the bills. He has lost allies in Central America. Venezuela can’t bail him out.
Five points on Bukele
This week’s report for paying subscribers focused on El Salvador’s election results. Nayib Bukele won 53% of the vote in the first round. Only around 50% of voters turned out, a lower number than usual.
Bukele destroyed the old political system to rise to the top.
Bukele’s team will reflect his centralized decision making process.
The issue of corruption will continue to dominate the political agenda.
Bukele’s unprincipled and undefined security policy will lead to uneven results.
Bukele will crack down on the country’s media.
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Corruption Corner
Brazil - A judge ruled that Flavio Bolsonaro does not receive immunity because the crimes took place before he became a Senator. He is now facing allegations of money laundering linked to two condos he purchased in Rio de Janeiro.
Brazil/Venezuela - Estadão reports that new documents show Odebrecht paid US$170 million in bribes and illegal campaign contributions in Venezuela, nearly double what they had reported paying in their disclosure to the US Department of Justice.
Reading List
Wilson Center (Mexico Institute) - Extortionomics and Ideas to Leverage the Digital Revolution
FT - Mexico’s purge on technocrats fuels fears of expertise shortfall
Colum Lynch, Foreign Policy - Corrupt Guatemalans’ GOP Lifeline
Reuters - Inside a raid in Maduro's crackdown on critics in Venezuela slums
Bloomberg - So Much Gas, So Few Allies Spells Trouble in Populist Nation (Bolivia)
Reuters - China’s military-run space station in Argentina is a black box
Shannon O’Neil, Bloomberg - Macri Floats Above Argentina’s Economic Mess
CSIS - Elections, Crisis, and What to Expect in the Year Ahead
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