Welcome to the Latin America Risk Report. I published three other newsletters this week for paying subscribers:
Monday - The capture of El Marro in Mexico
Tuesday - China, LatAm and Covid-19, Part 2
Wednesday - Politics and Polls in Peru, Colombia, Mexico and Ecuador
I’ve dropped the paywall on Wednesday’s newsletter so you can read it. It’s good background for the comments below.
Next Thursday’s newsletter is going to provide more details on the relaunch of the Latin America Risk Report. But as a quick preview, beginning on 17 August you will begin receiving a newsletter four days per week (Monday through Thursday). My goal is to make this the best newsletter you receive on Latin America.
Please encourage your friends and colleagues who are interested in Latin America to enter their emails at https://boz.substack.com/.
Region - Political systems growing restless
After over four months of lockdowns, Latin America’s political systems are getting restless in the same way you are while you work from home for months on end.
Yesterday's politics and polls newsletter discussed a political crisis in Peru due to Vizcarra’s new cabinet losing a no-confidence vote, a political crisis in Colombia due to the former president’s house arrest, and a long term political challenge in Ecuador due to nearly 90% of the country disapproving of politicians and political parties. The previous week’s newsletter discussed how Chilean President Piñera only has 12% approval while support for the constitutional reform grows.
Even the “good” news this week, the fact that Guyana has a new president and Argentina and Ecuador reached deals to restructure their debt, only came about due to political and economic crises pushing those events.
Those stories are a reminder that the grievances that led to the late 2019 protests and political crises in so many countries never really went away. We remain in an anti-incumbent moment. Economic growth was already anemic going into this year and now there is a harsh recession. Coronavirus lockdowns briefly stalled political conflicts and reduced protest movements. However, many citizens are still angry that political systems fail to represent their interests and those political systems continue to have the same internal conflicts and feuds that they had six months ago.
The events this week may be a foreshadowing of political unrest to come.
Bolivia - School is cancelled
On top of postponing the election, Bolivia has cancelled its entire school year. The government has promised to automatically promote all students to the next grade level. Bolivia’s decision is due to the lack of internet connections in many homes, particularly in rural areas.
The Bolivian government appeared to backtrack by saying the private schools could still operate if they reached agreements with parents, but that would only exacerbate the divide between the wealthy and poor in the country.
This is a particularly bad decision in a country that has among the highest levels of child labor in the hemisphere. If Bolivia’s school year is cancelled, many young children are likely to find work in the informal economy (particularly as the country navigates its recession) and never return to school. That is among the reasons that the UN has called for Bolivia to rethink its decision.
This is an unpopular move that is likely to harm Añez as she runs in the postponed election. There isn’t any instant polling on this, but if she does not reverse the decision and attempt to solve the problem of children going to school, I expect her approval rating to drop.
Coronavirus Chart Update
It’s been a while since I posted a chart of coronavirus cases, so here is a chart with new daily cases adjusted for population size. Please note that while every country has some testing issues, Mexico’s testing levels are pathetic and its numbers are further from accurate than any other country on this chart.
Source: European CDC via Our World in Data
Corruption Corner
Mexico - Animal Politico reported on concessions granted by the Lopez Obrador government to Sinaloa businessman Alfredo Aramburo Najar. Those concessions occurred in spite of federal investigations into Aramburo’s network of businesses for money laundering and fraud.
Guatemala - Former Interior Minister Acisclo Valladares Urruela was charged in Miami with laundering $10 million dollars in drug money and bribing other government officials to assist him.
Venezuela - AP reported that Claudia Diaz, the former nurse for Hugo Chavez, is the beneficial owner of US$9.5 million worth of gold in a vault in Liechtenstein.
Reading List
Americas Quarterly - 5 Big Ideas for a Post-COVID Latin America
InSight Crime - US Overlooked Rogue Drug War Officials in Mexico
Reuters - Battle brews for control of Latin American lender as some reject Trump candidate
International Crisis Group - Bolivia Faces New Polls in Shadow of Fraud Row
WOLA - The relationship between Colombia and the United States could change soon
El País - Rusia afirma que los supuestos mercenarios detenidos en Bielorrusia iban a América Latina
Foreign Policy - Latin America Can’t Survive the Coronavirus Crisis Alone
Bloomberg - Bolsonaro's Erratic Behavior is Making His Military Backers Nervous
Washington Post - Democrats demand answers from U.S. ambassador after reports he asked Brazil for favor to help Trump in 2020
New York Times - Under Pressure, Brazil’s Bolsonaro Forced to Fight Deforestation
New York Times - Brazil’s Troll Army Moves Into the Streets
Folha - O dia em que Bolsonaro decidiu mandar tropas para o Supremo
Reuters - Facebook puts global block on Brazil's Bolsonaro supporters
Washington Post - Mexico purges security agencies of those tied to ex-chief
Reuters - Mexican cartel operated with 'license' from previous government, current official says
Reuters - Mexico switches up fuel import contracts as it clamps down on costs
Guardian - Mexico journalist gunned down – the fifth to be killed this year
Nikkei - Chile picks Japan's trans-Pacific cable route in snub to China
Associated Press - Anti-quarantine protest erupts in Paraguayan border city
Associated Press - Pollution turns one side of divided Paraguayan lagoon purple
CSIS - Guyana: Oil, Politics, and Great Expectations
Politico - Congressional probe: Russian oligarchs using art to evade sanctions
Defense One - EU’s First Cyber Sanctions Target Russian, North Koreans, Chinese Attackers
Thanks for reading
I’m excited to discuss the relaunch with anyone interested in this newsletter. If you have comments or suggestions or if you just want to chat about Latin America, feel free to email me at boz@substack.com.