In this edition: Polls from around the region
Argentina: Fernandez leads by double digits
Fernandez continues to lead Macri by double digits in nearly every poll published since the PASO in August.
Federico González: Fernandez 55%, Macri 33%
Gustavo Córdoba: Fernandez 51%, Macri 30%
Rouvier: Fernandez 46%, Macri 32%.
TresPuntoZero: Fernandez 51%, Macri 33%
Oh Panel: Fernandez 50%, Macri 31%
Fernandez has over 50% approval in most polls and his disapproval has dropped in recent months. Macri’s approval rating remains between 30% and 40% in most polls. That is better than it was five months ago before the campaign began, but several polls show a drop in recent weeks as the president takes the blame for the economic crisis.
Bolivia: Morales leads in first round, Mesa leads in the second
Ipsos Apoyo: Morales 31%, Mesa 28%
Mercado y Muestras: Morales 34%, Mesa 27%
Ciesmori: Morales 39%, Mesa 22%
Both Ipsos and MyM say that Carlos Mesa leads in a hypothetical second round matchup by an 8-10 point margin. However, if Evo Morales can top 40% with a margin of 10% over Mesa in the first round, scheduled for 20 October 2019, the president can avoid the second round.
Brazil: Bolsonaro dropping fast as his base shrinks
A Datafolha poll from late August placed Bolsonaro’s approval rating at 29%, four points down from July. The same poll also suggested that Brazil’s president would lose a rematch against Fernando Haddad, the candidate for the PT in 2018, if a new election were held today.
An analysis by Datafolha suggests Bolsonaro’s “base” of support is only 12% of the population at this point while 30% of Brazilians are in strong opposition to the president.
Chile: Piñera gradually declines
A poll from Cadem has President Piñera at 32% approval and 56% disapproval.
Trendline over the past two years:
Colombia: Duque at 29% while facing FARC crisis
A Gallup poll shows President Duque with 29% approval rating and 64% disapproval. 71% of Colombians believe things in the country are worsening. The poll was taken before the recent news about the FARC leadership returning to war and the dispute with Venezuela over the presence of illegal groups.
El Salvador: Everyone loves Bukele
Nayib Bukele has over 90% approval according to a poll from La Prensa Grafica. The high approval rating is driven by a perception that Bukele has successfully reduced homicides and other violent crime during his first three months in office. According to official statistics, August 2019 was the least violent month so far in the century, with an annualized rate around 21 homicides per 100,000 people. That would suggest El Salvador is safer than Mexico or Brazil at the moment and that the country has significantly improved from the peak in homicides of 100 per 100,000 that occurred just four years ago.
There are reasons to doubt those statistics, especially given the new official methodology of not counting “justifiable homicides” by police officers or counting bodies found in mass graves. However, for now, the public believes Bukele is succeeding.
Mexico: AMLO continues around 70% approval
On the week Mexico’s president gives his annual address to Congress, polls confirm that AMLO remains very popular.
The aggregation of Mexico’s major polls from Oraculus estimates that AMLO remains around 70% approval with 25% disapproval.
An El Universal poll found that if the revocation referendum were held today, 74% would vote in favor of AMLO remaining president.
While AMLO’s personal approval remains high, the El Universal poll shows Mexicans have far less confidence in the institutions of the country.
Paraguay: Abdo’s first year was not good
President Abdo reached his one year mark with 31% approval and 69% disapproval according to a poll by Ultima Hora. A Latin America Advisor this week asked experts to comment on why his approval rating fell during the first year. Most analysts point to the mishandling of the hydropower negotiations with Brazil that almost led to the president’s impeachment.
Uruguay: Martinez leads in the first round
Daniel Martinez of the Frente Amplio has a lead for the first round of the 27 October election. However, pollsters believe Luis Lacalle would beat him in a hypothetical second round.
Opción Consultores: Frente Amplio 27%, Partido Nacional 23%, Partido Colorado 19%, Partido Cabildo Abierto 10%.
Equipos: Frente Amplio 30%, Partido Nacional 26%, Partido Colorado 16%, Partido Cabildo Abierto 8%.
Factum: Martinez (FA) 37%, LaCalle (PN) 26%, Talvi (PC) 19%, Manini (PCA) 9%
Corruption Corner
Guatemala - Congresswoman and former presidential candidate Sandra Torres was arrested on corruption and illicit campaign finance charges. The arrest came as she lost her immunity as a presidential candidate. Officials are now considering the possibility of nullifying the UNE party that Torres leads, a move that would weaken the largest group of politicians in Congress. While Torres likely deserves to be indicted for corruption, this arrest appears to be more of a political power play than a sign of institutional efforts to improve the country’s system. Torres’s detention comes on the same week the CICIG shuts down in the country.
Mexico - The WSJ reports that billionaire Carlos Salinas is being investigated for potential misconduct related to the Fertinal sale to Pemex, the same bribery case that has led to the indictment of former Pemex head Emilio Lozoya. Salinas is a major owner of Banco Azteca, which provided loans to Ferntinal while the company was struggling. Those loans were due and paid back the day after Pemex purchased the fertilizer company, making a profit for Salinas’s bank while leading to hundreds of millions in losses for the government-run oil company.
Separately, Animal Politico reports that Seguros Azteca, another property of Grupo Salinas, received a no-bid insurance contract for Mexico City in 2013 and is now raising the price. The article points out irregularities in the price of the contract and process to obtain the contract.
Reading List
Inter-American Dialogue - 23rd Annual CAF Conference
National Geographic - Inside the faltering fight against illegal Amazon logging
NYT - Where Is the Amazon Rainforest Vanishing? Not Just in Brazil
Bloomberg - Multinational Companies Reveal Gender Bias in Job Ads in Mexico
Animal Politico - Proyecto Miroslava: las pistas del asesinato de la periodista que no fueron investigadas
LA Times - Death, made in Mexico: Traffickers embrace fentanyl
BBC - A 'policy of massacre' in Rio's favelas?
Foreign Affairs - Plan B in Venezuela
NYT - To Save Colombia’s Peace Process, Prove the Extremists Wrong
Washington Post - Op-ed by President Ivan Duque: Colombia wants peace and will not be intimidated by ex-FARC criminals sheltered in Venezuela
WSJ - Argentina’s Pro-Business President Pulls a U-Turn, Imposes Capital Controls
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