Latin America Risk Report - 5 March 2020
Comments on coronavirus, cyber crime, polls in Mexico, and colectivo violence in Venezuela.
In this edition:
Region - Coronavirus update
Region - Increasingly sophisticated cyber attacks hit financial institutions
Mexico - El Universal poll confirms AMLO’s declining approval ratings
Venezuela - Guaido attacked by colectivos
Paying subscribers this week received an additional report with comments about El Salvador, Bolivia and Brazil.
Region - Coronavirus update
Initial cases have been reported this week in Argentina and Chile. There is a suspected case in Venezuela that has not yet been confirmed. The numbers of cases in Brazil and Mexico have expanded. Yet, nearly all the cases identified in Latin America can be linked to foreign travel, particularly to Italy. While there are not yet signs that it is spreading within the region, experts believe that it will happen at some point in the coming year.
I wrote last week about how the topics of coronavirus, declining economic conditions and a potential increase in protests may play off each other. I have dropped the paywall on that article and it is now available to all readers. If you want to support this newsletter and receive additional content and early access to articles, please subscribe for $9 per month.
Region - Increasingly sophisticated cyber attacks hit financial institutions
A new report from Intsights highlights how “Very persistent cybercriminals were operating extensive schemes targeting banks, hospitality services, and retail businesses for their credentials and their financial assets.” Complex targeted phishing scams as well as some malware developed in Mexico and Colombia to target the region’s banks is highlighted.
The report also looks at several schemes in which criminal groups launder money via cryptocurrencies. While cryptocurrencies remain a relatively rare method for transferring and laundering criminal assets, these case studies provide anecdotal evidence for how criminal groups are likely to act in the coming years.
Mexico - El Universal poll confirms AMLO’s declining approval ratings
On Monday, I wrote about recent opinion polls showing declining approval ratings for President Lopez Obrador. A poll published this morning by El Universal contained similar numbers as the polls from Reforma and B&L. El Universal says Lopez Obrador’s approval rating has dropped to 57%, with disapproval at 30%. The key reason for the decline is the failure to obtain results on security issues. As I wrote Monday, the potential for continued economic stagnation will further hit those approval numbers this year.
Protests scheduled for this weekend and early next week will challenge the president. Though AMLO retains over a majority support, the protests will highlight the topic of femicides and the government’s failures on security, which are the president’s weak spot.
Venezuela - Guaido attacked by colectivos
On 29 February, colectivos in the Lara state attacked President Juan Guaido and a group of his supporters. At least five people were injured and several vehicles were damaged by bullets. At one point, a colectivo member pointed a loaded weapon at Guaido.
There is little doubt the armed colectivos were sent by elements of the Maduro regime to intimidate Guaido and his supporters. The question is whether the attack, including the threat on Guaido’s life, were calculated by the top leadership around Maduro or if the group took its mandate well beyond the intentions of Maduro, Diosdado and others. One reason the Chavistas use the armed and violent colectivos as a paramilitary force is to create that plausible deniability when bad things happen.
The attacks on Guaido have been widely condemned both inside and outside Venezuela, with a large portion of the international community making clear that they blame Maduro and his allies for the attack and will hold them responsible if Guaido is harmed by colectivo groups.
This has occurred in the run up to the next planned large protest on 10 March. Maduro’s allies likely hope that they can reduce turnout by demonstrating a credible threat of violence by colectivos at Guaido-led events.
Corruption Corner
Costa Rica - The Attorney General’s office raided the presidential office and announced it was officially opening an investigation into President Carlos Alvarado and his administration over the misuse of personal data. As the AP writes:
At issue is a data analysis unit set up within executive offices that for the past 1 1/2 years has compiled and analyzed private personal data collected from various government entities, ostensibly to aid in shaping public policies. The problem was that the Presidential Unit of Data Analysis had no legal foundation until the government published a Feb. 19 decree creating it and authorizing it to request confidential personal data from other government entities.
Four officials including Presidential Minister Victor Morales have resigned over the scandal.
Mexico - A coalition of investigative reporters including Aristegui Noticias published a report on Alfonso Romo’s biotech company, Enerall, and its control over a significant portion of aquifers in the Yucatan Peninsula. The report alleges environmental damage in the region and the reduction of water supplies for the local community. Romo’s family still controls the company, even as he serves as AMLO’s top advisor in government.
Honduras - A new US court filing makes clear that US prosecutors have evidence President Juan Orlando Hernandez took money from drug traffickers and discussed the shipments of cocaine. The increasing information about Hernandez’s corruption and ties to drug trafficking raises domestic criticisms of the president by his opponents. It also makes it more difficult for other governments in the region to cooperate with him.
Brazil, Paraguay - Paraguayan police detained Ronaldinho for allegedly using a fake passport to enter the country. The Brazilian soccer star had his Brazilian and Spanish passports confiscated over unpaid taxes.
Reading List
LA Times - Is El Salvador’s millennial president a reformer or an autocrat?
Quartz - Mexico is illegally destroying protected mangrove trees to build an $8 billion oil refinery
AS/COA - Podcast: Mexico's Fight against Femicide Reaches a Boiling Point
The Guardian - 'Our children are going to prison': Chile holds scores of minors arrested during protests
BBC - Chile's protest street art: The writing is on the wall
Washington Post - Venezuelans seeking asylum present unique challenge to Trump administration
Bloomberg - China Readies Deal With Washington’s Closest Latin American Ally
LA Times - How Bad Bunny broke every rule of Latin pop — and became its biggest and brightest star
Al Jazeera - President Fernandez tries to slay Argentina’s inflation dragon
Science Magazine - ‘Astounding new finds’ suggest ancient empire may be hiding in plain sight
Thanks for reading
Have a great weekend.