Latin America Risk Report - 4 June 2020
Comments on Mexico's security situation and Bolivia's elections
In this edition:
More comments on Mexico’s security situation
Bolivia election is back on with the ideological extremes in the lead
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More comments on Mexico’s security situation
A Mexican think tank released its annual list of the 50 most violent cities in the world. 46 of the 50 cities are in the Western Hemisphere (with the other four being in South Africa). 19 of the 50 cities are in Mexico. Ten are in Brazil and six in Venezuela.
One key message from the list is that Mexico is getting worse. In 2014, only ten of the top 50 cities were in Mexico and only one of those (Acapulco) was in the top 20. Now the five cities with the highest homicide rates are all in Mexico. The two cities with the highest homicide rates in the world - Tijuana and Juarez - are major metropolitan areas on the border that are critical to Mexico’s economy. Neither was in the top 25 in 2014. Guadalajara’s inclusion on the list is another sign of the challenge that is driven in part by the rise of the CJNG.
As I wrote last week, Mexico’s security situation in 2020 has worsened.
Amid Mexico’s declining security situation and the lockdown, violence against women has increased substantially. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is generally dismissive of the security problems in the country. His comments downplaying violence against women received renewed attention over the past week as the president dismissed the vast majority of emergency calls about domestic violence as “pranks.”
He’s wrong. It’s insulting and dangerous that the president doesn’t understand the risk to women in Mexico.
It’s also a political challenge for him. Prior to the coronavirus shutdowns, AMLO faced large and well-organized protests by women’s rights activists over his failures to address violence against women. The protest movement weakened as citizens began social distancing and lockdown measures were put into place. However, with the country reopening and and new offensive comments by the president, a renewed wave of protests by women’s groups is possible in the coming months. While the president’s approval rating remains well above 50% in most polls, he has lost more support among women than men this year. Comments like those he’s made in recent weeks are the likely reason as to why.
Bolivia election is back on with the ideological extremes in the lead
Bolivia’s TSE announced the country will hold a rerun of last year's elections on or before 6 September. That date, postponed from May, comes from an agreement among the various parties including the MAS.
President Jeanine Añez has seen her approval ratings among the Bolivian public rise, even as political elites across the ideological spectrum have become more critical of her. Most polls show that her approval rating is above 50% and that she leads or is tied for the lead in the upcoming election. The Guardian published an article this week with criticisms of Añez for her holding on to power beyond her promised interim presidency and the corruption scandals that have come from the coronavirus response.
The president’s rise in the polls makes her the frontrunner, but also increases the chances of a MAS victory in the elections. The centrist candidates who could have competed more strongly in a second round against Luis Arce have dropped in the polls. A number of center and center-right politicians who are opponents of former President Evo Morales have turned against Añez in recent months. Given the choice between Añez and Arce, it’s not clear which side the moderates will go to in a hypothetical runoff.
With the top two scenarios coming out of this election being an Añez or Arce victory, the chances for a polarized and difficult post-election environment are high.
Coronavirus chart for this week
Cases and deaths in Brazil and Mexico continue to rise. The source of the chart is Our World in Data.
Corruption Corner
Colombia - Colombia’s Supreme Court ordered an investigation into Senator Alvaro Uribe on accusations that the former president received some of the info that came from military espionage efforts against activists and journalists during 2019. Uribe has rejected the investigation as a politicized attack by his opponents.
Venezuela - Naky Soto and Luis Carlos Diaz have done some excellent podcasts in the past week regarding fuel shortages and corruption in the energy sector in Venezuela. The recent Iranian gas shipments received a lot of media attention, but only provided a few days worth of fuel for the Venezuelan market. While Iran has pledged to send additional tankers if Maduro pays for them, there are no tankers of gasoline currently being tracked. Bloomberg reported that some cars were paying US$100 bribes in order to make it to the front of the line for gasoline this past week.
Meanwhile, Mexico is investigating Libre Abordo and its oil for food swaps with the Maduro regime. The company declared bankruptcy this week. Venezuela’s May oil exports were down in part due to the reduced trading activity by the Mexican companies.
Ecuador - Former President Abdala Bucaram was detained as part of an investigation into corruption in the health sector related to the coronavirus response. Authorities seized a weapon and medical supplies at his house in Guayaquil. Bucaram, known as “El Loco,” governed for less than a year before being removed from office in 1997 amid protests and claims of mental incapacity. He spent 20 years in exile, mostly in Panama, to dodge corruption charges and returned to Ecuador in 2017.
Brazil - The Wall Street Journal interviewed Sergio Moro, who accused President Jair Bolsonaro of abandoning the anti-corruption platform that he was elected to enact. The Washington Post covered the fake news operation run by Bolsonaro’s son that is now being investigated by Brazilian authorities.
Reading List
Inter-American Dialogue - Latin American State Oil Companies and Climate Change: Decarbonization Strategies and Role in the Energy Transition
The Guardian - Berta Cáceres was exceptional. Her murder was all too commonplace
Washington Post - Latin America had time to prepare for the coronavirus. It couldn’t stop the inevitable.
AS/COA - How COVID-19 Is Changing Latin America's Election Calendar
New York Times - Bolsonaro Is Bizarre. But He Knows What He’s Doing.
LSE Latin America and Caribbean Centre - COVID-19 is increasing the power of Brazil’s criminal groups
Guardian - Studies add to alarm over deforestation in Brazil under Bolsonaro
New York Times - ‘It’s Not the Virus’: Mexico’s Broken Hospitals Become Killers, Too
Bloomberg - Lopez Obrador Can Save Mexico by Embracing Globalization
Excelsior - Inteligencia Naval golpea al Cártel del Pacifico en Ensenada BC
El Financiero - Baja 8 puntos la aprobación de AMLO; se ubica en 60%
Associated Press - Mexico finds links to over $1 billion in cartel money
Guardian - Missing Mexican congresswoman's body found a month after abduction
Associated Press - Failed Maduro coup leader flew on pro-govt magnate’s plane
Wilson Center - A Crisis Within a Crisis: Venezuela and COVID-19 (pdf)
Wall Street Journal - Venezuela, in Historic Shift, Moves to Scale Back Fuel Subsidy
New York Times - Resisting Lockdown, Nicaragua Becomes a Place of Midnight Burials
New York Times - In Some Nations, Coronavirus Is Only One of Many Outbreaks
InSight Crime - Cocaine Seizures Expose Flaws at Guatemala, Honduras Ports
New York Times - Poor Countries Face a Debt Crisis ‘Unlike Anything We Have Seen’
New York Times - Where the Virus Is Growing Most: Countries With ‘Illiberal Populist’ Leaders
Washington Post - Trump is taking U.S. democracy to the breaking point. I saw what happens next in Venezuela.
Thanks for reading
Over the past week, it’s been inspiring to see so many peaceful protesters in the United States calling for justice and police reform in response to the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis. The small number of violent groups that attempted to take advantage of the protests cannot be a justification for ignoring or repressing the larger numbers of peaceful groups of citizens calling for change.
I spent much of late 2019 writing about the wave of protests that hit Latin America. One of the common trends was that abuses by security forces escalate protests. As occurred in Latin America last year, the numbers of protesters in the US have grown even as hundreds of incidents have been documented on camera of police and other security forces attacking peaceful protesters and journalists. Only authoritarian governments can successfully repress their way to the end of protests. Democratic governments need to acknowledge the legitimate grievances of the peaceful protesters, protect their right to protest, and offer opportunities for reform.
I have a lot more I could write, but I’ll stop it here. Keep organizing for change.