Latin America Risk Report - 3 July 2019
Uruguay's presidential candidates are set; Panama's new president promises crackdown on corruption
In this edition
Right wing candidates win more votes in Uruguay primaries
Update on Mexico City insecurity
Venezuela Update
Right wing candidates win more votes in Uruguay primaries
Uruguay held primaries to select the presidential candidates for its October election. The three main candidates will be:
Daniel Martinez, former mayor of Montevideo, will be the candidate for the ruling Frente Amplio (FA). He emerged as the strongest candidate amid an internal party fight over who would be the best candidate to maintain the legacies of Presidents Vazquez and Mujica.
Senator Luis Lacalle Pou is the candidate for the National Party (PN). Lacalle defeated Juan Sartori, a businessman running as an outsider candidate for the nomination.
Ernesto Talvi soundly defeated former President Julio Maria Sanguinetti for the Colorado Party nomination. While several polls showed Talvi ahead, none predicted that he would win by such a wide margin.
In addition to the three internal primaries, the number of voters in each primary suggests a relative weakness in the governing coalition.
The National Party obtained about 42% of the primary votes while the FA only received 24% of the total primary votes. The center-right Colorado Party received about 17% of the total primary votes. While not a perfect measure of public opinion (the parties were not officially competing with each other), the disparity in voter turnout shows the right side of the political spectrum as more enthusiastic and organized going into the general election campaign.
Polls still suggest a second round between Martinez and Lacalle is the most likely scenario and Lacalle has a small lead in the hypothetical second round matchup. Martinez faces an uphill battle in the second round with the current approval ratings for President Vazquez under 40%. In terms of the first round, analysts should continue monitoring polls for the Colorado Party as the turnout in Sunday’s primaries suggests Talvi may make a credible run for one of the top two spots.
The primary elections had about 40% turnout, a relatively strong turnout for a primary election that is not mandatory voting.
Update on Mexico City insecurity
A poll published in El Universal shows
65% of the citizens in the capital region perceive security as worsening in the first half of this year.
Four out of every ten residents of Mexico City have been victims of a crime or had an immediate family member (usually someone living in the same home) be a victim of a crime in the past 6 months.
Of those who were victims of crimes, only 37% reported the crime to the police, with most believing reporting the crime to be a waste of time that will not help.
In response to the rising insecurity, AMLO will deploy the National Guard to the capital.
Last month, Hxagon reported on increasing crime in the capital. Since writing that report, several readers have written to me citing other bold attacks that have occurred against themselves and their friends and colleagues in the city. I’ve heard multiple stories of muggings and extortion threats, particularly in and around restaurants and businesses in Polanco.
Venezuela Update
Military tensions. The big story of the week has been the torture and death of a naval captain by military counterintelligence (DGCIM). Captain Rafael Acosta, who was detained due to an alleged coup plot and held without evidence, died after showing signs of torture.
Detentions, torture and this death have increased tensions within the military. Officers under the highest levels question whether they are next and whether they or their families are safe. Top ranking naval officers in the country wonder why their service members are targeted and whether DGCIM is abusing its power given the closeness of their commander and Maduro.
Given these tensions, Maduro was forced to respond swiftly, promising a full investigation and detaining two members of military counterintelligence for their role in the death. The Maduro regime rarely responds to these sorts of incidents quickly unless they believe them to be a real threat to their stability or reputation.
Reuters published an in-depth report on why the military remains loyal to Maduro, highlighting the long term efforts by the Chavistas to corrupt the top ranks and purge dissent. Fear of detention and repression has been used selectively to keep the military in line in recent years, but this very public death appeared to cross a line.
Guaido has called for a significant size protest on 5 July against DGCIM. This will be an important test of Guaido’s current strength and the momentum of the protests against Maduro.
Energy exports. China increased its imports of Venezuelan crude in June, helping the country restore its exports to above one million barrels per day. PDVSA is shifting to blend crude to Merey, which is preferred by Asian refiners. Plans for July would shift the export locations for Venezuelan crude, which has lost markets during this year. One source in Venezuela told Hxagon the documents outlining these plans are overly optimistic about production levels and refining capability, describing the numbers as a “best case scenario” for Maduro and not the most likely scenario given all the recent challenges.
Corruption Corner
Panama - Laurentino Cortizo assumed the presidency with a promise to clean up government and prosecute the corruption of the past. Saying Panama had gone through “a lost decade of corruption” that had stolen resources from Panamanian people, Cortizo continued to build on the anti-corruption message that won him the presidency. The new president promised “There will be no untouchables,” and said his administration will prosecute anyone guilty of corruption, even those at the top levels of politics and business. However, the details of Cortizo’s anti-corruption efforts remain minimal other than a general try harder attitude. In addition to political will, Panama requires greater resources and personnel for investigations and prosecutions.
In related coverage, Americas Quarterly highlighted the work of journalist Mary Triny Zea in sparking the anti-corruption wave in Panama.
Mexico - The government has cleared Chiapas Governor Manuel Velasco of corruption charges in spite of significant evidence of irregularities including money for poor women being directed to shell companies.
Reading List
The Guardian - Revealed: rampant deforestation of Amazon driven by global greed for meat
The Guardian - 'May God bless you': evangelical pastors' hidden role in human smuggling's boom
Caracol - Jesús Santrich habría cruzado a Venezuela para encontrarse con Iván Márquez
Global Americans - Losing Legitimacy? The Organization of American States and its inconsistent defense of democracy
Foreign Affairs - Venezuelans Are Ready for a Truce—Can the Government and Opposition Deliver?
WSJ - Police Probe of Dam Collapse in Brazil Focuses on How Much Vale May Have Known About Risks
Thanks for reading!
Hello from Chicago! Hope all my readers in Canada and the US have good shortened holiday weeks. Please keep your comments and questions coming.