In this edition
Uruguayan president fires defense minister as country worries about crime
Venezuela politics update
Subscribers this week received an update on how Venezuela’s security situation has become increasingly politicized this year, a trend that impacts every Venezuelan as well as private sector companies still operating in the country.
Uruguayan president fires defense minister as country worries about crime
Uruguayan President Tabare Vazquez fired his minister of defense, the army chief, and multiple other high ranking officials over the coverup of evidence related to a disappearance case 45 years ago. A prisoner gave testimony to a military tribunal last year in which he admitted to throwing the body of Roberto Gomensoro into a river. The testimony was only publicly revealed by a local newspaper last week.
While Uruguay’s political system has been rocked by this scandal, one risk for the governing Frente Amplio party is that its focus on human rights abuses from past decades furthers the impression it is out of touch with modern concerns about crime and security. Homicides increased 46% in 2018 and there is a general perception among voters that insecurity is increasing across the country.
According to AP:
In less than a year, some 407,000 people — about a sixth of eligible voters — have signed a formal petition calling for a referendum to implement tough policies against crime. It will be held at the same time as the presidential election in October, amplifying crime as a campaign issue.
The initiative seeks life imprisonment for crimes such as multiple murders, contract killings and the rape and murder of minors. It would also give the military a greater role in domestic security by creating a 2,000-member national guard, eliminate probation for serious crimes and allow night raids with the approval of a judge.
A 2018 poll suggested that 74% of Uruguayans supported the use of the military in fighting crime in the country. An article by Frank Mora last year pointed to the increase in violent crime along the Brazil-Uruguay border.
The concerns over security are a key reason the government is unpopular. Vazquez only has a 28% approval rating with 47% disapproving according to IMM. He has been under 50% approval for most of his term in office and has had a net negative approval rating (disapproval higher than approval) since late 2016 in that poll. A separate poll by SPC has Vazquez at 25% approval and 53% disapproval, with the pollster suggesting that the Frente Amplio’s campaign for president this year will be hindered by the president’s low approval rating.
Venezuela update
Protests continue to draw large crowds. Protests called by Juan Guaido last weekend against power outages and failure of water infrastructure drew large crowds, particularly in poorer neighborhoods that previously supported the Chavistas. A new protest planned for 6 April is designed to test the organization and networks for “Operation Liberty,” a plan for people to march on Miraflores. Guaido has yet to announce a timeline for that larger operation.
Lack of water. While power disruptions continue to occur in Caracas and the power remains more off than on in many other parts of the country, the bigger immediate concern for many people is access to water supplies. Continued lack of water will cause significant health issues as well as increasing protests in the coming month.
Maduro-supporting TSJ and ANC pressure Guaido. Institutions that support Maduro announced that they are banning Guaido from running for public office for 15 years and stripping him of his parliamentary immunity. While Guaido and most of the international community do not recognize the legitimacy of these institutions, the actions do create the potential justification for Guaido’s detention by the police or military. Authoritarian regimes often create a bureaucratic logic to justify their repression. If Guaido is detained, several countries in the international community are likely to declare it a coup against the president that they recognize.
Red Cross deal to bring in aid. The Red Cross announced that they had discussed and received approval to deliver aid from both Maduro and Guaido. Guaido portrayed this aid delivery as a victory for his policies that have been pushing for the delivery of humanitarian aid. Maduro, on the other hand, appeared to be forced to backtrack in accepting this aid which he had previously rejected, an acknowledgement of the worsening humanitarian crisis in the country.
Politically-motivated violence is increasing in Venezuela. The article for paying subscribers this week described how the ongoing conflict over the legitimate governance of Venezuela is changing the nature of the violence felt by citizens and the private sector. Street crime is down while politically motivated crime and violent acts are up.
Corruption Corner
Brazil - Former President Temer was charged for corruption related to multiple corruption cases including receiving bribes from JBS and kickbacks for a nuclear plant deal. Also indicted in the nuclear case were former Energy Minister Wellington Moreira Franco and several top aides of Temer.
Mexico - Proceso links Juan Manuel Hernandez Palafox, AMLO’s pick for Deputy Director of Airports Supervision, with drug trafficking through airports and ports. Hernandez was previously investigated for ties with the Gulf and Beltran Leyva criminal groups, but was never charged. As InSight Crime writes, “The network that Hernández Palafox is allegedly a member of seems to be quite expansive, as it is linked to international crime groups in Colombia, Peru and Venezuela. What’s more, its activities stretch across a number of major airports in Mexico, and officials at the highest levels of government appear to be providing protection to those involved.”
Reading List
New Yorker - How Climate Change Is Fuelling the U.S. Border Crisis
Roll Call - Caribbean Islands becoming hot spots for Chinese investment
Jason Marczak, The Hill - We must stop the next great Latin American crisis [Nicaragua] before it's too late
FT - Mauricio Macri’s ‘whatever it takes’ move fails to stem peso slide
John Feely and James Nealon, Univision - If you thought the caravans were bad, you ain't seen nothing yet
Adam Ratzlaff & Wazim Mowla, Global Americans - Put your money where your mouth is: The Trump Administration in the Caribbean
Moises Rendon, CSIS - Can Venezuela’s Oil Pay the Day After Bill?
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