In this edition:
A new poll in Peru has Vizcarra’s approval rating at 56%
Venezuela updates include a new Russian military presence and another power outage
Paying subscribers received an analysis of the Tijuana security crisis. The high levels of homicides are driven by a three-way cartel war that includes the emergence of the New Generation Tijuana Cartel (CTNG) - an alliance between the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and part of the Arellano Felix organization.
Peru’s president still popular, but replaces prime minister anyway
Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra has an approval rating of 56% and a disapproval rating of 31% according to Ipsos. While Vizcarra’s approval rating has dropped from its high point of 66% in December, that is still a relatively strong position for Peru’s president. However, facing numerous headlines about a drop in approval ratings, and with few popular policy wins since the anti-corruption referendum late last year, Vizcarra recently replaced his prime minister.
Salvador del Solar comes into that position with a 44% approval rating. His first task as prime minister, a position that is often used to buffer the president from tough issues, will be to negotiate an end to a recent copper strike.
Venezuela update
Russian forces - Approximately 100 Russian military personnel arrived in Venezuela over the weekend. While reports on their mission varied, the most credible sources suggested they were repairing military equipment in Venezuela including air defense systems. The Russian military presence was not authorized by the National Assembly as is required in Venezuela’s constitution, which has sparked accusations by the Guaido government that Russia’s presence is a form of illegal military intervention.
Power outage - The electricity went out again in much of Venezuela this past week. Maduro and his supporters continue to make accusations of sabotage, which they are likely to use to repress their opponents. The electrical outage hit the energy industry and the ports, further reducing the amount of oil that Venezuela will be able to export this month. In an announcement made after the power outage, Guaido plans for protests this weekend and on 6 April.
Impact on Maduro’s stability - The fact Russia had to send the personnel is a sign of Maduro’s overall weakness, but even a small presence of Russian military forces could strengthen Maduro’s ability to deter and counter potential defections within Venezuela’s military leadership. The ongoing electricity shortages are certainly increasing the anger of the population. More importantly, the impacts on the oil and other sectors are deepening the economic crisis and giving him less foreign currency to spend in the coming months.
Corruption Corner
Brazil/Region - The US House Foreign Affairs Committee held a hearing on the Odebrecht scandal and lessons for combating corruption.
Brazil - The Financial Times uses the term “parallel power” to describe the paramilitary units that operate in Brazil’s urban areas, often doing the dirty work for police. The report comes following revelations that the militia members responsible for the death of Marielle Franco were close to President Bolsonaro and his family.
Reading list
Caribbean Council - Guyana in constitutional crisis as election deadline passes
InSight Crime - Is Mexico’s New National Guard Just Another Uniform?
Vanda Felbab-Brown, Brookings - Mexico’s out-of-control criminal market
More Vanda - AMLO’s security policy: Creative ideas, tough reality
New Yorker - Jair Bolsonaro’s Southern Strategy
Reuters - In Argentina, jitters return as volatility stokes political risk
Atlantic Council - Disinformation in Democracies: Strengthening Digital Resilience in Latin America
Thanks for reading
Keeping it short this week as I travel. Back in the office next week.