Good afternoon from the airport. In this edition:
Venezuela update: Defections in the military
Argentina polling update
For paying subscribers, an update on the Matamoros strikes and the implications for President Lopez Obrador in Mexico.
Venezuela update: Defections in the military
Over at the blog I wrote the following regarding the events on 23 February:
Among the more significant events was that several dozen members of the security forces flipped recognition from Maduro to Guaido. That includes an Army major, a member of FAES and multiple members of the GNB. The most violent repression appeared to be done by colectivo and paramilitary thugs as well as the police. The number of defections by Venezuelan security forces over the weekend was small but significant. Don't underestimate how a daily trickle of movement could quickly become a significant shift in the balance of power.
A few days later, the number of Venezuelan security forces who have defected and announced their presence when crossing the border to Colombia now numbers in the hundreds. That is only the formal number. Prior to 2019, various government sources and documents from the military indicated thousands had deserted in the past three years. Some fled to other countries while many remained inside Venezuela hiding.
A third group of defectors are sitting in prisons and other holding cells. They were captured and many were tortured. It is not clear how large that group is, but it is likely growing. They’ve been removed from the security forces for now in order to send a message, but at some point that message changes from a reason to remain to a reason to flee more quickly and effectively.
Guaido’s plan has always contained an element focused on exploiting the division between Maduro and the security forces. Convincing the lower ranks that their lives would be better under Guaido always has been an important part of undermining Maduro’s hold on power. As I told the Wall Street Journal back in late January, “The point at which the people with guns who can’t feed their families outnumber people with guns who can feed their families—that’s a tipping point.”
Military counterintelligence has done its best to prevent the mass defections through surveillance, threats and even torture. The interviews done with those who have decided to acknowledge Guaido as president and commander-in-chief suggest that many more within the ranks are eager to follow if they can get past those obstacles.
Argentina polling update
Clarin has a set of slides and analysis about the most recent round of polling in Argentina.
Nearly every poll shows a technical tie or a narrow Kirchner lead in the first round over President Macri. However, neither candidate is close to the 45% threshold to win in the first round.
There is plenty of dislike of the two frontrunners and there are enough second tier candidates including Sergio Massa and Juan Urtubey taking a middle ground that neither Macri nor Kirchner is likely to increase to 45% during this campaign.
The second round polling also shows a technical tie between Kirchner and Macri with a large number of voters (at least 20% in every poll) who simply refuse to choose between the two.
The country is in an anti-incumbent mood but also dislikes the leading opponent of the president. Usually the incumbent wins that type of battle, but it also opens up a potential for a middle ground candidate to rapidly gain strength.
Bloomberg quotes Alejandro Catterberg, director of the Poliarquia polling firm, as saying Macri would likely defeat Kirchner in a second round but could easily lose if he faces a more moderate candidate. He also notes that Macri’s chances will fade if the economy worsens, if inflation increases and/or if wage growth doesn’t pick up. I agree with all of those points.
Reuters published a good article with plenty of charts about the competing economic problems Macri faces.
Corruption Corner
Mexico - Articles in the WSJ and Bloomberg highlight how AMLO is using anti-corruption investigations in order to attack regulatory institutions and other potential checks on his power. I wrote back in January how AMLO was undermining the anti-corruption fight to achieve other political goals.
Mexico - Leonardo Cornejo Serrano, a Pemex official tasked by AMLO to manage the Dos Bocas refinery project in Tabasco, has been linked with one of the large Odebrecht construction contracts under investigation in Mexico.
Region - The Inter-American Dialogue will host an event on political finance and state capture.
Reading list
Wilson Center - India-Venezuela Relations: A Case Study in Oil Diplomacy
HRW - Colombia: New Army Commanders Linked to Killings
Steven Dudley, Foreign Affairs - The End of the Big Cartels
Bloomberg - Trump Nears Key Cuba Sanctions Decision Over Support for Maduro
New Yorker - Venezuela’s Food Crisis Reaches a Breaking Point
Bloomberg - Maduro’s Masked Thugs Unleash Terror Along the Venezuelan Border
Plaza Publica - Interview with the US Ambassador to Guatemala
Inter-American Dialogue - Cautious Capital: Chinese Development Finance in LAC, 2018
Thanks for reading!
I’m heading to Buenos Aires! I’m hoping to collect info on politics, polling and economics there to share with subscribers in the coming weeks. I’ll do my best to make sure next week’s newsletters go out on time, but it’ll depend in part on the travel plans.
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