In this edition
Homicide statistics questioned in Mexico City
Colombia tries to boost trade with China
Venezuela Update
Subscribers received an update on Nicaragua and why Ortega’s hold on power remains strong. Dialogue with the Civic Alliance is currently frozen while murders rise.
Homicide statistics questioned in Mexico City
The government of Mexico City says the previous administration undercounted the number of homicides and other violent crimes in the capital. Their new accounting of homicides in 2018 suggests they have only risen by 16% this year, not the 36% that had been previously reported. They also suggested the number of total violent crime had actually dropped given the new statistics regarding 2018.
The claim has set off new questions about how violent crime statistics in the capital are collected and managed. With crime being a serious political issue for Morena in the capital and nationwide, critics claim they are spinning these 2018 statistics to blame their predecessors as much as possible for current problems. The capital’s crime reporting is generally more transparent than most other state entities, so if it is true crimes were covered up in the capital, the level of underreporting is almost certainly higher in other states.
Nationwide, homicides are up about 5% with 18 states showing an increase. June saw a concerning spike in homicides across the country, hitting the AMLO government’s narrative that they are turning the security situation around. The largest increase this year has been in Nuevo Leon with a 72% rise in homicides in the state. From a raw number perspective, Jalisco, Estado de Mexico and Guanajuato are all of high concern.
Colombia tries to boost trade with China
President Duque will travel to Shanghai and Beijing next week to promote Colombia trade and tourism. He hopes to expand Chinese investment in Colombia and China’s imports of Colombian agriculture.
Even in the best of diplomatic environments, Colombia would be looking to diversify its markets, but this trip to China comes amid other tensions with the US. Duque is concerned about Trump’s protectionist policies hitting the country’s largest export market and threats to decertify Colombia’s efforts on counternarcotics.
At the same time, there are plenty of tensions with China to address. Duque will bring up the topic of Venezuela, but does not appear likely to use any significant diplomatic or economic pressure to try to change Beijing’s policy of propping up Nicolas Maduro. He will also try to negotiate the transfer of several hundred Colombian prisoners in the country including four on death row.
Venezuela Update
Guaido rallies - Juan Guaido held rallies around the country to commemorate the six month point after which he took office as the interim president. While the rally on 23 July was far from the largest of the year, several of the preliminary rallies outside Caracas drew substantial crowds and demonstrated that Guaido retains significant support among the public.
Negotiations - Plenty of rumors and very little real news have come from the negotiations in Barbados. Both sides are avoiding discussing the details publicly. Multiple sources have suggested that the conditions for early elections remain a key topic, but no details have been confirmed other than the fact the two sides remain far apart on key issues including whether Maduro will remain president in the run-up to those early elections.
Airspace dispute - One of the Venezuelan military's SU-30s approached a US EP-3 in the waters north of Venezuela this weekend. Venezuela claims the US entered its territory and the plane was escorted out. The US claims the EP-3 was in international airspace and the Venezuelan plane conducted an unsafe close approach that put everyone at risk. The fact Venezuela had an operational SU-30 demonstrates Russia’s continued military support for Maduro.
Blackouts - The country experienced its fourth nationwide blackout of the year. Power was restored in most of the capital by the following morning. Though the nationwide blackouts get attention, the situation has been regularly problematic outside the capital, with some municipalities in western Venezuela going days without power at a time.
Lima Group - The Lima Group called on the UN Security Council to debate the situation in Venezuela and sent the Bachelet report on the human rights situation to the International Criminal Court. The Lima Group also promised to support efforts to investigate corruption and organized crime in Venezuela including Maduro’s ties to the ELN.
Sanctions - The US sanctioned Alex Saab and Maduro’s stepsons for their role in corruption related to food imports into Venezuela. Meanwhile, Spain’s ABC reports that Venezuela is converting airport taxes into cryptocurrencies as a way of evading sanctions.
Corruption Corner
Region - A new edition of Americas Quarterly Magazine contains numerous stories about the anti-corruption fight around the region.
Colombia - Several active duty generals including General Adelmo Fajardo, the second highest ranking officer in the Army, were forced to retire due to corruption allegations. Earlier this month Semana reported that Fajardo was accused of embezzling several hundred thousand dollars from the Army’s Education and Doctrine Command budget. The corruption allegations and retirements come amid a broader crisis of leadership within the Army over the past false positives scandal and leaks to the media about recent orders to increase kill rates.
Mexico - The mother of Emilio Lozoya, the former director of Pemex, was detained in Germany. Mexico had issued an Interpol warrant on charges related to money laundering and corruption.
Reading List
Daily Beast and National Geographic - The Ugly War Over the ‘Cocaine of the Sea’
Axios - Taiwan striving to keep Caribbean allies beyond China's reach
Washington Post - Op-ed by Nayib Bukele: El Salvador doesn’t want to lose more people to the U.S.
Miami Herald - How Miami, a major destination for Venezuelan gold, is helping prop up Maduro’s regime
Bloomberg - South America’s New Panama Canal to Pass Through ‘Green Hell’
Washington Post - A massive mural in an underground District tunnel is finally seeing the light
Thanks for reading
Still on the road trip. Hello from eastern Pennsylvania. Please reach out with any questions or comments about this newsletter.