Latin America Risk Report - 23 January 2019
Venezuela has a new president; ELN bombing hits Bogota.
In this issue
Big day of protests in Venezuela
ELN car bomb hits Bogota
For paying subscribers - AMLO's policy moves may undermine Mexico’s anti-corruption fight
Venezuela’s Protests and a New President
Juan Guaido has declared himself president of Venezuela and called for new elections. The protests to support the National Assembly appear to be the largest mass demonstration in the past two years. Various countries including Canada and the US have recognized Guaido as the legitimate president. Violent repression is expected from Maduro and his paramilitary operatives.
No matter what happens at today’s big protests, Juan Guaido and his team are already moving pieces into place for a smart international campaign to cement Guaido’s and the National Assembly’s position as Venezuela’s legitimate government. They are sending an ambassador to the OAS. They are negotiating financing deals for the country with multilateral and private lenders.
Venezuelans want a functioning government. With Guaido at the helm, the opposition’s strategy moves beyond complaining about Maduro to implementing initial governing actions including appointing ambassadors and negotiating debt deals, just as a transitional government should. Importantly, they continue to reiterate the constitutional legitimacy of every action they take, even as their rule book must be somewhat improvised because this situation was never imagined in the constitution.
All of those governing actions are important, but the critical question of who controls the military remains. Guaido has made his case for the military to follow him as the constitution requires. He is also pushing an amnesty bill for those who help reestablish democracy. The Venezuelan Armed Forces have shown some cracks in recent weeks, but there are few indications any high ranking military officers plan to follow Guaido as commander-in-chief. Guaido must hope the lower level personnel of the military are more eager to reestablish democracy than the corrupt elite at the top.
ELN Bombing
The ELN Central Command claimed credit for a car bomb at a Bogota police academy that killed 21 people and wounded over 70. On top of the Bogota terrorism attack, the ELN bombed oil pipelines and set explosives along roads in eastern Colombia.
The fact the ELN believe this approach was a strategically smart move suggests they still do not understand Colombian public opinion or the Duque government’s attitude towards security. ELN negotiations have faltered since Duque took office, but this sort of attack will move the government and public towards greater security action, not back to negotiation.
While the FARC peace process has been going poorly, the FARC condemned the car bombing the day it happened. In the days before the bombing, FARC leader Ivan Marquez, who had disappeared from public for several months, reappeared on video to discuss flaws in the peace process and criticize the Duque administration. It’s a positive sign that the FARC are so willing to criticize the use of violence against the police, even as they go through their own tensions with the Colombian government.
This event is quite likely to exacerbate Colombia-Venezuela border tensions. The ELN have been expanding their presence in Venezuela and cross the border regularly. It is expected that several ELN commanders currently in Cuba for negotiations will return to Venezuela now that those talks have been cancelled.
Corruption Corner
Brazil - Revelations about the corruption of Jair Bolsonaro’s son Flavio continue to harm the new Brazilian president’s administration and largely overshadowed his underwhelming appearance at Davos. Brazilian media reported Flavio’s former driver Fabricio Queiroz received nearly US$2 million in payments, which many assume relate to corruption in the Bolsonaro family. Evidence of several hundred thousand dollars worth of direct payments to Flavio have also been uncovered. The Financial Times writes how this scandal, dubbed mensalinho, may prevent Bolsonaro from implementing his pension reform.
In recent days, a new scandal has emerged suggesting Flavio hired relatives of a fugitive police officer who runs a death squad in Rio. Some media have linked that death squad with the assassination of Rio Councilwoman Marielle Franco that remains unsolved.
Venezuela - This was a big week for Venezuela corruption investigations.
A large group of investigative journalists working under Connectas published a multi-part report on oil corruption from Venezuela.
OCCRP, along with many of the same media outlets as the Connectas report, published a report on Chavista testaferro Carlos Luis Aguilera Borjas.
RunRunes published a report on how the Maduro regime is profiting from the gold trade.
Region - On 5 February the Inter-American Dialogue will hold an event on prosecuting corruption in the hemisphere.
Reading List
Eric Olson, Wilson Center - Where Do We Go from Here? Merida 2.0 and the Future of Mexico-United States Security Cooperation.
NYT - Interview with Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX) about US-Mexico border issues
Carlos Chamorro, Confidencial - Independent Journalism from Exile
Bloomberg - Macri’s Re-Election Chances Hinge on Economic Recovery, Poll Says
InSight Crime - 2018 Homicide Roundup from Latin America
Francisco Toro, Washington Post - Venezuelans take to the streets again. Could democracy be won this time?
Thanks!
It’s been a busy week for news out of Latin America. Especially on busy weeks like this, tour feedback matters for how I choose which topics to cover. Please feel free to email me with your comments, questions and requests for future coverage.